"Italy Muzzled Scientists Who Forecast Quake" (Skepticism, "Science" and Public Policy---Not To Mentioni "Journalism

"Italy Muzzled Scientists Who Forecast Quake" is the present Drudge headline. As readers of this blog know, I often like Drudge's cheeky headlines. This one, however, is a terrible headline--a leftist, mainstream media kind of headline designed to do nothing but mischief (not to any political party, but to the human race).


Let me help out mainstream journalists here, and even Drudge. The next time a scientist claims to have "forecast", or to be able to "forecast", earthquakes, ask the following questions:


1. What do you suggest we do about it? Do you suggest we PANIC people without knowing what they should do? Do you suggest we evacuate San Francisco (to use one possible example)? Based on your prediction? Are ou willing to pay the costs, and stand trial for murder as to those people killed in a panic evacuation, if your "prediction" is wrong? Are you really saying people should ACT on your prediction, and HOW?


2. Are you able to predict the exact magnitude of earthquakes you "predict"? With what kind of margin og error"?


3. Are you able to predict the "epicenter" of earthquakes wihtin one suare mile? If not, what is your margin of error?


4. As to this Italian town, did you actually advocate evacuating this town? Did you predict this town would be destroyed? How close were you as to the exact date and timw of the earthquake? How close were you to the magnitude? How close were you as to the exact location of the earthquake? Have you published results on your method of prediction earthquakes that other scientists agree have proven correct in predicting earthquakes? How many earthquakes have you succesffully predicted in the past, and how accurately (give same information as requested above for this earthquake)? Back to more general questions.


5. Do you know how many INACCURATE "predictions" of earthquakes (in locatiion, magnitude or time) scientists have made in the past 10 years? Have you made any such inaccurate "predictions".


6. Do you have any FUTURE earthquake predictions right now? Time, location and magnitude please.


7. Is there any "independent" group evaluating the overall accuracy of "scientific" predictions of earthquakes? If so, what is that group (or groups), and what do their findings show.


8. Are lyou aware the technique "psychics" use to claim accurate "predictions"? If you make ENOUGH, vague enough "predictions" about events, and if people forget your INACCURATE predictions, you can make headlines. What would you say if I suggest that is at least partly the case with earthquake "predictions?


You get the idea. SKEPTICISM is the right attitude here. Looking for an excuse to PANIC the public is the WRONG attitude. It is distressing how much "science", and "scientists", are now being USED for political purposes (an evil, syil, symbiotic process in which "scientists" feather their own nests--see "The Double Helix" by Watson and Crick as to how scientists are human beings with human ambitions). This is obviously true in the area of "global warming", but it is becoming true in way too many areas.


Yes, to put it bluntly: I am telling you that present "scientific" "predictions" of earthquakes are not accurate enough to be a tool upon which to base public policy decisions and/or public actions. I assure you I am right on this. There may come a time when I am wrong (or will change my mind), but that will be based on SKEPTICAL evaluation of claims of "scientists", in peer reviewed papers, and NOT by sensational claims of "successfully" predicting a specific earthquake.


Do I think scientists should be "muzzled". Nope. Unlike most leftists, I really believe in free speech. However, I believe "journalists", and other scientists, have a duty to be SKEPTICAL of things like predictions of earthquakes (and "global warming"), rather than spreading panic based on inadequate information.