Tomorrow morning, Thursday, we will have essentailly the first report on new unemplyment claims for the new year, although it will include they very endof the old year and not mean much (because of the New Year's holiday and volatile end of Christmas season--not to metnion WEATHER--makng the "seasonal adjustment" even more iffy that usual). Then there are whatever yearly CHANGES may go into effect as to calculating the weekly data (especailly the seasonal adjustment). The media is uninterested in informing us of those things, and it is not worth my time to figure out. I would assume any calculatin changes will not really go into effect until the new year is really underway, but the positioning of New year's Day alone makes it very difficulut to do the seasonal adjustment (as was also true of Christmas). Before starting to analyze the NEW eyar, howeve,r, which will not have much meaning until we get substantially into the year (as the weekly number of new unemplyment claims only has meaning OVER TIME), I do want to wrap up 2012.
As to new unemplyment claims, 2012 was a year of TOTAL FAILURE for Obama. NO "improvement" the ENTIRE eyar. STUCK, in a bad place. That describes ALL of 2012, as to the weekly number of new unemplooyment claims.
Ignroing FICTIONAL weekly numbers created by Sandy and Labor Dept. incompetence/dishonesty, the RANGE of weekly new unemplyment claims was 351,0000-392,0000, and we ended the year right in the MIDDLE of that range (372,0000 to be REVISED upward tomorrow). Yes, Sandy distorted the "seasonal adjustment", and created "temporary" spikes to 451,0000 on the upside, and 344,0000 on the downside. Yes. As I told lyou, Sandy COULD, and did, DISTORT numbers AFTER the intial upward spike, just as it distorted numbers during that upward spike. Still, the number of new wekly unemplyment claims filed was REMARKABLE for its CONSISTENCY (consistently BAD) for the entire year. The range fell to 35`,0000-365,0000 from about mid-January to mid-March, probably because of new seasonal patterns and good weather, only to--repeating the pattern of 2010 and 2011--RISE in the spring and summber, before bouncing around to the end of the year (including after Sandy). As stated: NO "improvement" the entire year.
Two Thursdays ago had the "honor' of being one of the WORST (saying a LOT) performances by our DISHOENST Labor Dept., and even MORE DISHONEST MEDIA, ever. The initial number of new unempllyment claims reported was 350,000, but you should have known somethign was WRONG when at least one story I saw mentined "seasonal factors" from the Christmas holiday as a factor. The previus weekly number had been a Sandy DISTORTED (because of seasonal "bounce back) number of 344,0000. The FICTIONAL 350,0000 number ws promptly "reported" by our DISHONEST (most dishonest peole who have ever lived) media as "best" number in more than 4 YEARS. How can I say FICTINAL? Because of the REVISION reported last Thursday. The initially reported 350,0000 number was REVISED upward a full 12,0000, WITHOTU apparent interest by the media, to 362,0000. Now even 350,000 was NOT the "best number in mo43 5hqan 4 eyars. The initial number had been reported at 348,0000-350,000 (before revisions) at least THREE TIMES in February alone (or in that mid-January to mid-March low period). However, our DISHONET media, who ignore the "four-week average" when it does not fit their AGENDA, chose to look at the supposed "4-week average" and say that the number of new unemplyment claims was suddenly the BEST in more than 4 years (combining a Sandy DISTORTED number wiht a FALSE Christmas distorted number). Note that the actual 362,000 number made even this a LIE: meaning that the SAME headlnie is now available again if we have the same tyope of UNREVISED numbers (as happened some 4 times with regard to that "low" of 351,0000, which kept being "beaten", only to NOT be "beten" when the following week's REVISED number came out).
Look at the LIES here:
1. 350,0000 new unemplyment claims announced 2 weeks ago. A LIE. Actaul number--assuming "seasonal adjustment" ws correct, which you cannot assume--was 362,0000: the REVISED no. announced last Thursday.
2. Media announced that 350,0000 was 12,0000 DOWN from previus week's 362,0000 (344,0000 being week before that, if I have confused you). A LIE. Number, as REVISED, was actually UNCHANGED.
3. You can expect last Thursday's intially reported 372,0000--up a full 22,0000 from the INITIALLY reported 350,0000--to be a LIE after tomorrow's revision. Now we have not had an UPWRD revison in FOREVER. That shows fundamental DISHOENSTY of the Labor Dept. If you have HONEST numbers, you CANNOT consistently have "revisions" ONLY in one directin. Will tomorrow be different.? If so, as stated, it will be the first time in FOREVER. Now 12,0000 revison last week was unusually LARGE, but that NEVER happens on the downsied: ALWAYS on the upside (like every three months or so).
4. Nope. Media gave idea that three was "improvement" over the eyar. NOT TRUE. A LIE. Numbers went from 451,0000 to 416,0000 to 396,0000 near end of year, due to Sandy, and then were distorted the other way: ENDING the year exaclty in the middle of tthat 351,0000-392,000 range for the year (disregarding fictional numbers). Of course, these holidy numbers were ALL supsect anyway. Overall, as stated, 2012 was a FAILURE as to the weekly new unemplyment claims, staying STUCK the entire eyar.
Yes, I will continue to analyze these weekly numbers for you, n 2013, because I am virtually the ONLY person telling you the TRUTH on these nubmers. No. The weekly numbers did NOT show that we got WORSE in 2012. But they did not show that we got BETTER either. We remained STUCK, in a bad place. We need numbers under 3000,0000, CONSISTENTLY. We certainly need numbers well under 350,0000, CONSISTENTLY, and we got no such thing--NO "improvement" at all---for the entire year of 2012.
Note, further, that the media is yet AGAIN saying that the economy has 'turned the corner" at the end of 2012. Oure DISHOENST media said the VERY same things at the end of 2010 and 2011. There is a TREND here: a TREND of the economy APPERING to be "better" at the end of each eyar, only to have that exosed as FALSE as the next year proceeds. Now, at some pont this pattern might change. But there is NO reason, right now, to assume that we are not gonig to see the same pattern again.
As I have stated, ObamaCare alone (more than taxes--although ObamaCare taxes are gong into effect in additin to other tax incrases) is a SWORD OF DAMOCLES over the U.S. economy, wihout even considering the "spending/debt ceiling" "fight" that the COWARDS of the GOP are promising. I see no present reason to believe 2013, will be a BETTER year for the economy . There are a numbe of reasons for believing it will be a WORSE year, as we head for the full "implementatin" of ObamaCare in 2014.
P.S. No proofreading or spell checking (bad eyessight).