Have youi noticed that "data" AND headlines have REPEATED in 2010, 2011, 2012, and 2013 (now) EVERY one of those years the weekly AND monthly employment data "improved" in January-March, and our media headlines proclaimed a 'steady", IMPROVING "turnarund" in "hiring" (the labor market). In 2010, 2011 and 2012, the headlines turned out to be FALSE, as the data DETERIORATED into spring and summer.
What is happening here? First, the Labor Dept. is DISHOENST. Read my articles over all of these years, and ou can't come to any other conclusion. Notice that the Labor Dept. CHANGES the basis for the weekly and monthly calculatins ata the beginning of each year. These are not "concrfete" numbers, despite LYUING "journalists" who report them that way, but "seasonally adjusted" numbers. There is no dbout that the "seasonal adjustment" has been SKEWED in January and February of EVERY year since 2010. Then there remains the CONSISTENT Labor Dept. 'reporting' of about a 3,0000 ERROR in new unemplyment claims every Thursday: NEVER "down" (except once, proving the rule of dishonesty), but always up. Recently, the dishonest peole of the Labor Dept. had managed to have little or no error when the number of new unemplyment claims was "favorable", but the usual ERROR when claims were not so favorable (making thme look slightly better). This new pattern changed last Thursday, when new unemplyment claims were reported at a "favorable" 340,0000, but the previus week was REVISED up the usual 3,0000, to 347,0000.
See my previous articles in this blog this year. Notice that the major "pattern" continues. There have now been FVE Thursdays in the past 12 where claims were reported near 340,0000, and SEVEN (in the past 12 weeks) where clakms were reorted arund 365,0000. IMOSSIBLE. This kind of "pattern" of INCONSISTENT numbers cannot be REAL. It is false.
"But, Gordon, you are turning into a conspiracy nut." Not so. No "conspiracy" is necessary. All that is necessary is for INDIVIDUAL Labor Dept. peole to "slant" SUBJECATIVE formulas and numbers. Evidence is that is what they have done. Doubt me? Look at the "sequester"!!! Look at all of those SEPARATE agencies which have LIED about the effect of the sequester. Labor, for one, about those "teachers" being given "pink slips". Homeland Security. The White House itself. Agriculture had a MEMO telling employees to make sure that "cuts" HURT in ways obvius to the public. White Houe tours (lol). Did this REQUIRE some sort of giant "conspiracy"? Of course not. There did not have to be any kind of big "meeting' to coordinate a sonspiracy of lies. Now I don't doubt lthere are a number of "small" conspiracies gong on involving the sequester. But are you really naive enough to believe that Federal government officials, and even "ordinary" higher level eployees, can't figure out that their BUDGET may depend on people feeling PAIN from the "seqauester", so that it doesn't continue? And you can't possbily be naive enough--stupid enough--to belive that EVERYONE in the Obama Administratin did not get the message to highlight maximum PAIN from the sequester--even if yo need to be dishoenst. Nope. These sequester "games" PROVE that the Labor Dept, and all of the rest of the Federal Government, are DISHOENST. Why shuld you belive they are honest on these "job" statistics". Again, the evidence is otherwise.
Look at the monthly job numbers. Supposedly, job "gtains" have ACCELEARTED over the past 4 months, even as GDP was FLAT ("up" .1%, or effectively ZERO) in the 4th quarter. Again, these numbers are IMPOSSIBLE. They cannot all be correct.
Then take another look at those monthly job numbers. 89,304,0000 Americans are no longer in the labor force--not even looknig for work: A RECORD. The number of Americans in the labor force FELL 296,0000 since January, despite the supposed "gains" in jobs. These numbers do not compute with the supposed "improving" numbers. Even FOOD STAMP numbers are inconsistent, as the number of people on food stamps keep gong up (now over 50 milin). Again, 89 MILLIN peole are no longer even part of the "labor force" in America. yes, this includes retirees, but it also includes many other people who have obviusly figured out how NOT TO WORK, and be dependent on the government. Nope. There are NOt enough "younger peole" to keep suporting this overhang of peole not in the labor force. Now IF this was because WOMEN had suddenly--smartly--decided that they SHOULD be housewives, this MIGHT not be so bad. Dream on. Remember DISABILITY claims are SKYROCKETING, and my "explanatin" is the correct one: too many people are figuring out how NOT to work (at least "on the books"), and how to be dependent on the Federal Government.
Tomorrow, we will agian get the Thursday release of the number of new unemplyment claims for the previus week, as well as the revision of the 340,000 number released last Thursday. See if you can anticipate me, and see how the number makes no sense (as it almsot cannot, given the past 12 weeks).
Note, by the way, just how BADLY media headlines LIE. Notice that the weekly number of new unemplyment claims STARTED off the year at 335,0000 and 330,000 (numbers for the first two FULL weeks of January). Waht do you observe from these numbers (as I channel my inner Sherlock Holmes)? The number has NOT IMPROVEED since lthose first two weeks. In fact, you could say that the number of new unemplyment claims has DETERIORATED since the beginning of the year. This is the SAME thing that happned in 2010, 2011 and 2012, when FEBRUARY (generally January-March) was ALWAYS a "good" month--usually lower than the previus year, although hat is hardly true for 2013, as to Feb. AVERAGE--only to see the number DETERIORATE later in the year. Remember, it is numbers WITHIN the year that can best be "compared", becasue of possible changes in "adjustment" formulas. 2010, 2011 and 2012: ALL of those years showed a DETERIORATIN as the year went on, and NO IMPROVEMENT over the course of the year (even if some SMALL "improvement" from the previus year).
Federal Government is becoming so dishonest generally that these numbers are really becoming almost worthless. But I will continue to point out the inconsistencies and dishonesty as we go into the year. Note that private payroll processor ADP HAS shown SOME "improvement" in monthly emplylment numbers. But ADP numbers are ONLY cited when they FIT the AGENDA of the media. I hae not followed the ADP numbers enough to analyze how inconsistent they may be. They, too, are not "concrete" numbers. I thik I will start paying a little more attentin, as I now KNOW that the Labor Dept. is DISHONEST (PROVEN in the "sequester" matter, and in my previus articles).
P.S No proofreading or spell checking (bad eyesight). New unemplyment claim numbers for last 12 weeks (that impossible series): 362,000; 362,000; 367,000; 372,000; 335,0000 (lol); 330,0000 (lol); 371,000; 366,0000; 342,000; 364,0000; 347,0000; 340,0000 You can look back at previus articles to see if I have gotten any of these SLIGHTLY wrong fro memory, but I promise yu that this is an accurate repreentatin of the IMPOSSIBLE series of numbers: imossible because the REAL "labor market does nto fluctuate like this, or is not SUPPOSED to so fluctuate with the "seasonal adjustment". Woiuld we be better off with NO "seasonal adjustment", and just reporting of RAW number? I think so I KNOW it is DISHONEST not to report BOTH the "raw" number and the "adjusted" number, because it really is not ture that one is more 'news" than the other. "Raw" number, in fact, represents a CHECK on the adjusted number, and ANY real "journalist" would report it PROMINENTLY. "Real" "journalists" no longer exist, if they ever did.