NL Central, and Entire National League, Analyzed (At Season Midpoint)

Nobody is ever going to make a career out of walking people with the bases loaded (see previous entry and comment), but I find it amusing that Dan (see comment again) summarily dismissed the part of my entry that most informed observers would AGREE with. That is my analysis of the National League Central Division race in baseball.


I said that NO team in the National League Central is a "playoff team". Obviously, ONE team will make the playoffs--the dvision winner. However, I stand by my comment that no team is PLAYING well enough to be a playoff team, except that one has to make it. The statistics back me up here. The Cardinals finished out of the playoffs last year winning 86 games (a little misleading, since they won their last 6). At their present pace, NO team in the divison willl win more than 86 or 87 games. That would ot have made the playoffs last year. I realize that .500 teams have gone into the playoffs, and even won the World Series. The Cardinals did it in 2006--limping into the playoffs with a mediocre recrod not too mcuh above .500, only to win the playoff games and the World Series. They were still not really a playoff caliber team, except that anything can happen in short series.


The wild card team will come out of the West (most probably San Francisco or Colorado, with the Dodgers winning the division). San Francisco does not have much hitting, but they have PITCHING. So long as that holds up, they will not go away, and they will be REALLY dangerous in a short series (where 2 great pitchers can be enough). The East has been affected by injuries, especailly to the Mets, and may end up with no playoff caliber team either. In other words, the THREE best teams in the league may be in the West, and my present evaluation is that only the Phillies are a playoff caliber team in the other divisions (not playing like it lately, but they were a strong team last year and would logically be expected to become at least moderately better over the second half of the year. The team has a lot of good players, so long as they are healthy. Florida has been erratic, and the Mets have those injury problems (before whcih they were showing signs of getting better).


So, you have the Phillies out of the East. You have the Dodgers and either the Rockies or Giants out of the West. The Rockies were the best team in baseball in June, but seem to blow VERY HOT and VERY COLD. Does that have something to do with their home field, and the latitude there? Maybe. It seems to distrot the team a little, since their home park is so very different from the road parks they play in. . Still a dangerous team. And the Giants have that pitching.


When I say the National League Central, which I follow most closesly, has NO "playoff team", I do not just mean the record. None of them are obviously CAPABLE of playing that well. The Cubs have been affected by injury, and their offense has usually been as bad, or worse, than that of the Cardinals. They have some good piching, but not of Giant caliber. Their pitching is at least as good as the Cardinals, and probably better. However, the Cardinals have Pujols and a much improved bullpen. The Cubs do not seem to play well away from Wrigley Field (a little similar to the Rockie situation?). Unless people like Derek Lee regain form, I just don't see the Cubs doing real well. Yet, they are right there. Cincinatti seemingly does not have much, except some good young players, but they are right there. Houston was left for dead in the first month or so, and probably has played better than any in the Central over the past month or two. They, too, are right there, but have stalled just as they seemed to be making a move toward the top of the division. Pittsburg is not statistically out of it. but I would say they realistically have little chance.


Now there was a time last year that the Cardinals were tied for the lead in the division, and it seemed that no one "wanted" to win the division The Cardinals faded, and both the Cubs and the Brewers might have been regarded as legitimate "playoff teams", even by me. However, both the Cubs and the Brewers look more like the Cardinals last year than they look like the Cubs and Brewers of last year. The Brewers lost a good part of that PITCHING, which is so important in baseball. And the Cubs seem to have lost a good part of their HITTING, with a pitching staff that does not seem to be quite good enough to make up for it. Last year, the Cardinals had Ludwick an d Glaus (Ludwick still there, with Glaus on the DL, but not hitting like he was last year). They still faded with a hopeless pitching staff ("hopeless" to be really good, although good enough to win 86 games). They now have Carpenter back (will he last the year), and Wainwright missed a good part of the crucial time last year. Pujols is BETTER (hard as that is to believe). IF another player gets HOT (besides Pujols), and Carpenter stays healthy, the Cardinals still could win this division. It is still a lot of "ifs". Pujols, of course, MUST stay in the lineup, and not fall off. Rasmus has shwon signs of breaking out into a good player. If that were to happen, and/or Ludwick to return to close to last season's form, and/or Glaus actually make it back, the Cardinals could suddenly become a "playoff quality" team. Obviously, the sme kind of thing might happpen to any of theother teams in the division, and I am not too familiar with recent moves they may have made. DeRosa COULD help the Cardinals, although the snakebit start (no hits and an injured wrist) has not yet shown he will.


In short, I stand by what I said about the NL Central Division, and further I think it is pretty much the standard opinion (maybe not as dramatically put) . In the ESPN Cardinal broadcast (against Minnesota), the Cardinal hitters (outside of Pujols) were pretty much dismissed as not producing (the obvious observation). Plus, several times I have heard it said that .500 might win the NL Central. For once, then, I think I am pretty much with consensus opnion in suggesting that NO team in the NL Central is truly a playoff quality team, as things stand right now. Baseball can change rapidly, which is part of its charm