Saturday, September 13, 2008

Hurricane Ike: Hyper-Hysteria Gone Nuclear

Bottom line:  Media coverage of hurricanes has become WORTHLESS, and counterproductive.  My description in the heading is an accurate description of the coverage:  Hyper-hysteria gone nuclear.
 
If you listened to any of the coverage on IKE, and I could not for more than  minute at a time, you could be pardoned for getting the impression that Hurricane Ike was the worst hurricane ever to hit Texas.  There was supposed to be this wall of water 20 feet high wiping out most of the Exas coast, and all of Houston.  Everyone who refused to evacuate, except Geraldo Rivera, was supposed to be facing CERTAIN DEATH.  Every media person seemed to be trying to outdo the previous one in doom and gloom hysteria.  I can still remember Hurricane Camille, before this absolute hysteria and when we sort of took hurricanes in stride.  I can't even imagine the over the top hysteria of another Camille, which came ashore in 1969 on the Gulf Coast mainly in the Mississippi /Alabama area of the Gulf Coast as a Category 5 hurricane bearing winds of 175 mph.  Most people survived.   Before I was born (1947), my mother (at the insistence of my father) rode out a hurricane at Port Lavaca, Texas.  The point is that hurricanes used to represent natural disasters we could deal with, instead of Armageddon.
 
It comes down to an issue of the very soul of the "news" media.  Are they there to provide CALM, accurate information cutting through the hysteria. Or are they there to whip up the hysteria by HYPE and SCARE--crying doom and gloom as if every disaster is the worst thing to ever hit mankind.  We know what direction they have chosen, and it is the wrong one.
 
TV is only useful in a disaster if you can count on it for useful information cutting through the "fog of war"--cutting through the hysteria of the moment.  Tv should actually be aiding a CALM response to something like a hurricane, but a response that adequately respects the real dangers.  I'm sorry.  It does NOT help to keep saying that Hurricane Ike might be the worst hurricane to hit Texas, or this area of Texas--even worse than the 1900 Galveston hurricane that killed more than 8,000 people.  Ike made landfall as a Categry 2 hurricane (although no different than a minimal category 3. 
 
I know it was a BIG hurricane, which made it dangerous.  But enough is enough.  The world was not going to end because of Ike.  Everyone who failed to evacuate was NOT going to die (although I, personally, would have left Galveston).  If you are on an island, or low lying area that might be overwhelmed by the storm surge, you should evacuate (or take really serious precautions).  That does NOT mean that ALL of Houston should be evacuated (as it wasn't).  That does NOT mean going hundreds of miles.  We have simply GOT to develop plans for hurricanes that do not involve sending millions of people hundreds of miles.  As I said in a previous entry, I prefer the Florida approach on Gusvav, which was to advise coastal residents to go 5 or 10 miles to ground high enough to avoid the storm surge.    All of this has to do with authorities acting rationally.  But the media is making it harder and harder for anyone to act rationally.
 
TV coverage of hurricanes has become nothing but a (bad) horror movie.  The only reason to watch is for cheap thrills and to feel the adrenalin rush of vicarious fear--as long as you can turn off your brain.   What else can you say when you have supposedly serious TV "jouranlists" saying something life:  "Ike has been pushing water before it over the entire Gulf of Mexico--really from off the coast of Africa--and all of that water is being pushed onto the Texas Gulf Coast."  I managed to hear that in one of my five or so one minute surfing explorations of the coverage.  God only knows what was said in the massive amount of time I was not watching.  The stories about Paul Bunyan don't contain any whopper this big.  Forget that Ike did NOT "push water before it"  all of the way from the coast of Africa.  It went over CUBA--land. This image of Ike piling up water in front of it all the way across the Gulf of Mexico is vivid, and FALSE.  Yes, hurricane winds drive water before them.  But they don't ACCUMULATE it (on a continuously building scale) lie a snow plow.  In fact, tropical cyclones circulate around an eye, like a large wheel.  How could they possibly be "building" water before them in a single direction?  They aren't.  You just can't get any more STUPID than this.
 
Since the merest dunce realizes they are watching horror fiction with TV coverage of actual, and impending, hurricanes, "crying wolf" does not even begin to cover it.  These people would OVERHYPE a Category 5 hurricane, no matter how bad it is. Everybody can see it.  That means NOBODY will believe it.  In fact, TV is glamorizing "riding out" a hurricane.  You have all of the se reporters apparently standing out in the middle of a hurricane, as if it is FUN--including women.  Who is going to believe this is really dangerous?  It looks like an amusement park thrill ride. 
 
People have tried to answer me before by suggesting that scare tactics are necessary to scare people into evacuating.  Give me a break.  Calm, FACTUAL information MIGHT convince people to take action.  Overhyped hysteria is going to have, and is having, exactly the opposite effect.  People don't believe it.  They SHOULDN'T believe it  Unfortunately, that means they don't believe what they SHOULD believe:  that hurricanes are dangerous things.
 
As I have said before you should IGNORE TV coverage of hurricanes (beyond the simple fact one may be on the way).  There is NO reason to watch these people.  They HYPE every scare thing, and cannot be relied upon for calm information (either before or after).  You should rely on the National Hurricane Center information (despite the tendency for hype there, as well, but not on a scale of TV).  You should rely on local TV and emergency information for the local information you may need.  NEVER pay ANY attention to national EV.  You should figure out for yourself a safe location to ride out a hurricane, if you live on or near the coast.  Listen to local and state authorities, but not to the extent of doing something STUPID like evacuating perfectly safe places in Houston because authorities have been panicked into "ordering" an evacuaton of the entire city.  Now if you have a great place to go (say a mountain vacation cabin), without inconvenience, to avoid a hurricane, why not do that?  Unless you crave the excitement, or want to protect your property, there is no real reason to go through a hurricane for the fun of it, like my father did in Port Lavaca.
 
Is it too bad I have to say things like this, and give this advice?  Yes, it is.  IF the TV networks--especially cable--had gone in the direction of providing CALM, RELIABLE INFORMATION, with perspective and without hysteria and hype, that would be a valuable thing.  As it is, there is NOTHING of value in what they are doing.
 
P.S.  I know that people probably died because of Ike, and I am sorry for that.  However, it is a delusion that this overhyped coverage "saves lives" in the end.  I remain convinced of the exact opposite.  TV people should really worry that oil markets, and speculators, are MORE rational than the TV people, and MORE willing to put things in perspective.  Oil went down AGAIN, as it did with Gustav, even as Ike roared across teh Gulf of Mexico.  The oil markets are aware, as the TV people do not seem to be, that hurricanes happened in the Gulf of Mexico before, and they will happen again, without disrupting the oil market.  Katrina was a special case, unlikely to recur--especially with a perfectly ordinary hurricane like Ike.

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

I absolutely, 100%, agree with you. I am shocked no one else has even commented. Has everyone lost their mind or their voice? What has happened to us?

Just for Noise, the TV stays on about 24/7 here. I have been listening as well as looking on line for info that so "we were wrong, no certain death occurred". No current answers online either.

I live in Carolina Beach NC, outside WIlmington NC. I watched gas jump up, here at the coast $1-1.50 a gallon increase in a matter of hours. By my home in Raleigh, about 1.5 hours away, the gas situation was the same.

I watched in horror, just last week, while I sat here at the beach waiting for Hanna to come and kill me.  I would have left if the storm was reported to get bigger.

... the underlying fact and result, my home at the beach received less than 1/2 inch of rain. I lost 3 shingles, and 1 (yes, literally 1) palm branch in my pool. Gas prices didn't move but maybe a penny.

The result. I spent about $200 in the grocery store and Home Depot.
I worried myself and family for nothing, but worse...

I FEEL LIKE THE MAN WHO LISTENED TO THE BOY WHO CRIED WOLF SO MANY TIMES!!!

How am I to find real infomation, really when to go in an emergency?

One other question/comment:

Since 9/8/8, Wilmington NC was the first area in the NAtion to "Switch"
to all digital TV, Analog TV is gone forever. All small, battery operated TV/Radios are useless. I purchased a NOAA radio last week. This is the only info now available to us in a storm. What are we to do. Listen to these National panic mongers in a stor. We are at their mercy.

What is happening in my beloved country, I have never felt so betrayed in my 52 years. Who do we vote for to make it better?
Another one of these fear mongers?

I too am a maverick conservative. A real conserative, not what we call conservative today. A smaller government, stay out each others business conservative.

Anonymous said...

I appreciate the comment.  As you can see, I don't get that many.

I agree that the digital "revolution" is LESS than meets the ey.  What is more, my brotehr is an electrial engineer in a test position at General Dynamics, in one of those jobs that he has to kill you if he tells you about it.  He sees them "going digital" in all kinds of eletronics applications.   They act like they have ADDED something to improve what they are doing, even though the underlying theory is the same old stuff from 50 years or more ago.  Digital is not inherently BETTER than analog.  It does alow encoding and decoding MORE information more precisely, and in more compact form.  However, there are DOWNSIDES.  For example, Direct TV never could "'fix" my satellite system, even though there ws nothing wrong with the satellite.  But ANY glitch in the trasnmission (along cables) from the satellite to the TV (once I got a digital TV--no poroblem before that) mens NO picture (or pixels, which amounts to the same thing).   The picture is BETTER, when you get it, but you may not get it.  When I switched to Time Warner (becasue Dirct TV not only could not fix the problem, but their procudries for dealing with a real problem are hopelessly frustrating--take my word for it), I began having the same prbolem of no picture every early morning between about 1 a.m. and 8 a.m.  ANY deterioration in the signal puts a digital picture at risk.  And you don't just get "snow", or distorted sound.  You get no picture, or a picture that is impossible to watch.  

Anonymous said...

Completion of response to comment:

As I said, my electrical engireer brother is unimpressed with the digital "revoluton", because more is claimed for it than it delivers.  Even somethinig as simple as a DVD may NOT PLAY with so much as a spekck of dust on the disc.  Sre.  DVD's are a heck of a lot more convenient, and have a better picture, besides theoretically lasting longer, than the cumbersome tapes.  But GLITICHES are COMMON.  In some ways, tapes are more reliable, despite all of those mechanical parts to go wrong.  The digital wrold appears to be here, whether we like it or not.  As with most things (Obama included?), "change is not quite as great as it is cracked up to be.  As my brother says, most of the real improments in our lives are based on discoveries that prdate the explosion in personal comuters, the internet, and information technology (the digital "revolution).  Have computers replaced thinking with an illusion that digital information is REAL prgress (as it may be in quality of TV/DVD pictures)?   I think so.