Hurricane Ike Update: Evil Media Bashing

Here is the latest update on Ike from the National Hurricane Center.  You will note how much LAND is around--making both the course and intensity of Ike bery uncertain.  Florida is still only an area "of interest", told to monitor the storm closely, because it is a "potentially dangerous storm".  New Orleans is not even mentioned, and should not be, although it has been more than mentioned on some media coverage.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT. IKE IS
FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST ON SUNDAY.  ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...IKE IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY...AND
THEN MOVE NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF
EASTERN CUBA SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY

You will note that Ike is now a Category 4 hurricane.  Hoever, earlier today it was a Category TWO (yes TWO) hurricane.  In other words, the intensity is varying substantially, and subject to varing even mroe depending on how Ike interacts with the various land masses in its way  This is in addition to whatever change in surrounding weather conditions miight unexpectedly occur.

You know the SUPIDEST thing I heard today, after I heard the SAME STUPID THING with Gustav?  Ike was clipping along with 115 mph winds.  These STUPID commentators said it would reain a Category 3 storm--turning into Category 4; then back into 3; and then on into the Gulf of Mexico as a Category 4 Storm.  Not only was most of this total SPECULATION beyond tonight, but it was an obvious LIE.

Ike was not really much of a Cateory 3.  115 mph is the LOW limit of a Category 3 storm (as it was with Gustav).  That means that if the winds slip to 110 mph, the storm becomes a Category TWO hurricane.  It is IMPOSSIBLE to say that won't happen (in most circumstances), even if the storm figures to strengthen in a few hours.  As with Gustav, that is exactly what happened. Winds in Ike fell to 110 mph, BEFORE increasing back up to 135. It is RIDICULOUS to project with cnfidence how strong Ike will be after it negotiates all of these land masses.  It is IRRESPONSIBLE, and even EVIL, to TRY to say things confidently, as if they are LIKELY, when you are only talking possibilities.  Now the BAHAMAS should worry.  Cuba might worry.  The U.S. , right now, merely needs to WATCH, except for a place like the Florida Keys, where people have to get out long in advance or risk being trapped with no exit.

I continue to say that advance SCARE stories are EVIL things.  They accomplish NO PURPOSE. Sure, you can advise people of POSSIBILITIES, to suggest that they monitor and make advance preparations just in case.  But to start talking about a MAJOR HURRICANE striking the U.S., as if it is LIKELY to happen, is just indefensible.   To SCAZRE for ratings is an EVIL thing.  To SCARE New Orleans at this time goes beyond evil into hyper-evil. No, I don't care that Governor Jindal, who I LIKE a lot, may be forced to talk prematurely about this to protect himself. That is the DANGER of all of this HYPE.  There is PREMATURE PANIC.

I liked the way Governor Crist handled it  There was a no-panic, factual "news" conference light years better than media reporting.  There was no talk of mass evacuations out of Fforida, or something stupid like that.  Yes, there was talk of people getting out of the Keys, becasue of both the low level and the limited egress.

But the part I liked best was the advice by the Florida meterologist there for people to rely on LOCAL news and advisories--NOT on antional news.  I not only second that; I think it is the sanest thing I have ever heard at a government news conference.  Plus, Floridians were told that it is not NECESSARY to evacuate "hunreds of miles". All you have to do, in almost AlL of Florida, is get out of the way of the storn surge--moving away form the beach no more than 10 miles. I think it is obvious that if you live in a trailer park in the path of the storm, you might want to consider being in a safer place, even if you are out of the storm surge.  But NO talk of mass evacuations for LONG distances.  SANITY.  Florida is SANE.  Who knew?

Let me be blunt:  The Weather Channel is USELESS (excpet for entertainment of blog material).  Cable TV is worse than USELESS.  The BEST infomraton is almost always local information.  That is my experience, nd I stand behind it.  A lot depends, of course, on how much the local information relies on HYPE itself.  But you can't rely on the tnational information for antything more than a vague idea of what is going on (tells you when you may need to monitor the situration, for example).

Let me give you some "straight talk" on Ike. Chance it may hit the U.S. AT ALL as a hurricane:  40 to 50%--perhaps less.  Chance it will hit New Orleans as a hurricane:  Less than 5%.   Chance it will hit U.S. as a MAJOR hurricane (Category e or above):  Probably no more than 20%.  Chance it will go into the Gulf of Mexico and become a hurricane there:  No more than 20%.  Chance it will be a MAJOR hurricane in the Gulf of Mexcico:  No more than 10%.  Chance it will make landfall in the Gulf of Mexico as a Category 4 strom or above:  No more than 5% now.  Obviously, the probabilities change as Ike's path and intensity become more certain.  Ike needs to get past Cuba.  If it does, it MIGHT be a major hurricane hitting the U.?S.  If it gets hung up on Cuba, or any of these otehr land masses, it could change dramatically.  I heard one media guy say that it would be a Category 4, and then a Category 3 and 2 over Cuba, but back to Category 4 in the Gulf of Mexico. Evil hogwash.  Oh, it MIGHT happen (low probability).  Remember the SAME prediction was made on Gustav, and Gustav went over a FLATTER part of Cuba.  Gustave never came COSE to regaining Category 4 status after Cuba.  This is UNCERTAIN stuff.  The HYPE, and overcoverage, is indefensible.

I know.  TV people say this is what viewers expect. It is OUR fault.  I would like to see how a national TV source that was FACTUAL, and swore off unnecessary speculation, would do. I don't know, but viewers are going to get tired of this endless storm hype.  My p;der daiughter, Kenda, already is tired of it.  D.