Hurrican Ike Update

My series of entries on Hurrican Ike has been an attempt to shouw you how the hurricane SHOULD  have been reported, but has not, with facts instead of scare speculation.

Here is the what I consider the relevant information on Ike, from the latest "forecast advisory discussion" on the National Hurricane Center website.  I will surely not give another update tonight,  and I assume no one is so foolish as to be using me for their prime hurricane information.  I recommend using the hurricane center, in conjuction with local sources, and ignoring all of the hyped national news sources.  Here is the NHC "discussion", in part:

AND REPORTS FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT CONFIRM THAT AN
OUTER EYEWALL HAS FORMED...BUT IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT THE EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE WILL COMPLETE PRIOR TO IKE REACHING CUBA.
ACCORDINGLY...SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 12 HOURS.  ONCE INLAND OVER CUBA...WEAKENING IS EXPECTED BUT
THE AMOUNT OF WEAKENING WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON HOW LONG THE CENTER
STAYS OVER LAND.  THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS IKE INLAND FOR
APPROXIMATELY 24-36 HOURS SO SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS SHOWN.
HOWEVER...ONLY A SMALL DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OR THE SOUTH COULD
RESULT IN THE CENTER OF IKE MOVING BACK OVER WATER SOONER.  IKE IS
FORECAST TO REACH THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 2 DAYS
WHERE THE WATERS ARE WARM AND THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LOW.
IKE'S POTENTIAL FOR RESTRENGTHENING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
DEPEND ON ITS STRUCTURE ONCE IT EMERGES FROM CUBA.

Translation:  Ike is now dwn to maximuc sustained winds of 120 mph--a LOWER END Category 3 hurricane--and is not likely to be well enough orgainized to reintensify  to a Category 4 before it his Cuba. What happens after that is TOTALLY UNCERTAIN, since it all depends on what happens over Cuba.  Ike could become exttremely disorganized, and unable to reform as a major hurricane, or it MIGHT emerge as a major hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico.  Both the intenisty and exact path depend almost TOTALLY over what happens over Cuba, and how long the storm stays over Cuba.  You may or may not be hearing the same thing from the national "news" media, or The Wather Channel (I have taken my own advice, and stopped listening), but this is the FACTUAL informatioin.  Thereis NO PURPOSE to scare hype of the type the media is probably puttting out.  We may not know until Tuesday what Ike is going to be like as it emerges, IF it emerges, from Cuba.  Of course, we MIGHT have an idea sooner, if Ike changes course slightly in such a way that it is likely to emerge from Cuba sooner, and in better shape to reintensify over warm Gulf waters. 

To say the least, there is no need for either panic or Gulf Coast evacuations at this point  In fact, so long as residents monitor the situation and have previously taken advace precautions because of Gustav, I would not do anything because of Ike until the situtation is clearer.  Now I assume Governor Jindal is trying to shore up any vulnerabilites exposed by Gustav, and his performance so far indicates to me he will be on top of the situation  I do think that we HAVE to come up with some kind of alternative to these MASS evacuations.  I admit taht for truly vulerable areas, like New Orleans, I am not sure waht that alternative is, other than lack of too early panic.  For Houston, I have no doubt:  DO NOT TRY TO EVACUATE THE WHOLE CITY AGAIN, absent a truly extrordinary storm (if then).  But New Orleans is so vulnerable to FLOODING that it is hard to come up with good alternatives,  other than simply abandoning major areas of New Orleans--a "solution" that I am reluctant to endorse and oters obviously find abhorent.  What is strange is that I saw today a few minutes of a SCARE story that MILLIONS might DIE in a direct hit on TAMPA, and our economy might be destroyed.  What use these stories have, when the "solution" was not obvious, excapes me. 

We ALL know that a good part of California is going to eventaully separate fromt he rest of teh country, and that the Big One (earthquake) is coming.  Other than make plans, and make builidings as earthquake resistant as reasonably possible, what can we do about it?  NOTHING, unless we want to abaondon the most populous parts of California. 

I don't know whether there will be another Ike update on this blog or not.  I have accomplished my primary purpose, which is to illustrate how I think storm coverage SHOULD be done.  Do you realize that Josephine, hyped for a few days as a THIRD storm, has DISAPPEARED. 

I know. They thinnk they need to SCARE and SPUECULATE on the WORST for ratings.  Maybe they are right.  I am  not sure. As with the "news", I think there may be a HUNGER out there for some "straiht talk", free of as much agenda AND hype as possible   There is no evidence that we are going to get it.  As I have tried to show as to Sarah Palin this past week,  the "news" media is now totally out of control.  I have been trying to show that for the entire history of this blog, but I did not realize quite how bad it could get.

I still advocate the Carthage solution (when Rome destryoed Carthage):  eliminate every person and stone of what we have go salt the ground so the old ones can never rise again; and start completely over. Don't laugh.  It may (figuratively) happen.  I think the present media are in the process of destroying themselves.