Hurricane Ike, Continued

In my continuing effort to give you BETTER information on Hurricane Ike than you are getting from cable TV or The Weather Channel, I am updating you on Ike.  Ike is becoming a Category 4 hurricane.  That is, of course, an extremely dangerous storm for ships, and anybody else affected by it.  But WHO is likely to be affected by it?

The national hurricane center does not know.  That is the ONLY real "news".  The rest is SPECULATION, and of no value.  Nope.  I stand by that  SPECULATION is of NO value to the public, and very limited value to officials.  Every responsible official, in a state that MIGHT be affected by Ike, has to keep a wary eye on Ike, of course.  But we seem to be fast approaching the panic state where we spend millions of dollars preparing on mere speculation.  To a degree, we did that with Gustav, and there was certainly too much SCARE with regard to Gustav--not as to the evacuations eventually ordered but as to things like disruption of oil production and gasoline/oil prices.  The very successs of teh massive preparation for Gustav MAY be BAD, because it leads us to the idea of evacuating at the least excuse, and spending millions with even less excuse than that.  Gustave was actually GOOD for New Orleans.  No, I am not saying being hit by a storm is a pleasant thing, but New Orleans needed a TEST of the upgrading of the levee system.  Gustav provided such a test without being a truly major hurricane.  IF Gustav had reamined as strong as the TV people kept saying it would, even after that became questionable, Mew Orleans might well have been in BAD trouble.  AS it is, weak spots shoud have been revealed by Gustav.

I repeat:  Despite the obvious need for advance warning, we have become too OBSESSED with hurricanes, or at least the media has.  Somehow, we have to start treating hurricanes FACTUALLY, without unnecessary SCARE.  The "cry wolf" syndrome will eventualy operate if we adopt the idea that OVERSTANTING the facts is the way to go.  Further, if we evacuate the entire Gulf Coast every time there is a hurricane in the Gullf of Mexico, we are going to be KILLING people, in addition to wasting money.  I have a firm opinion that we should NEVER (okay, almost never) evacuate HOUSTON (the entire city).  We KILLED people unnecessarily doing it for Rita.

Anyway, in my continuing public service effort to counter the HYPE about what a Category 4 hurricane can do to us, here is the OFFICIAL 11 p.m. advisotry from the National Hurricane Center, on Ike.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE WEST ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...TAKING IKE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE WEST-CENTRAL
ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  IT IS TOO EARLY TO
DETERMINE WHAT IF ANY LAND AREAS MIGHT EVENTUALLY BE AFFECTED BY
IKE.

Note that it is TOO EARLY to determine what land areas will be affected by Ike.  It does not mattter if Ike is dangerous, except to ships, until we have a good idea where it is going.  I repeat:  SPECULATION, especially to the public, is USELESS.  It has NO function.  It is NOT "news".  If you are truly interested in POSSIBILITIES, you can go to the National Hurricane Center website, and look at projected possible tracks and discussion of models.

Do I have a problem with a NON-SCARE explanation of possible tracks on TV?  Of course not.  But that is NOT how it is done.  This speculative information is given in SCARE terms.   "New Orleans "could" be hit again, and this time by a Category 4 hurricane," or similar scare statements.  These statements MAY be "accurate", but they are USELESS.  Equally correct (assuming New Orleans is still in the mix of possibililties for Ike):  "New Orleans COULD be totally out of the path of Hurricane Ike."  Once you start confusing "COULD" with actual proabilities, I think you are heading down the road to evil speculation. 

I still believe that the Jack Webb "just the facts" approach is best.  Sure, you MUST "speculate" (except it is not really speculation) when you get to the point of advising people of posslible DANGER zones when a hurricane is imminent.  Even then, there is no need to exaggerate the threat.  But using "could" when a storm is well away is NOT a good thing.  It is a BAD thing.  I stand by that statement.