Thursday, September 18, 2008

Stock Market Inspires Insane Panic

Do you know how STUPID you are if you panic over SHORT TERM moves in the stock market?   Yes, Bill O'Reilly, this means you.  Your are revealed as STUPID.  O'Reilly, of course, is not worse than the rest of teh mainstream media.  And we have not even gotten to Democrats.

It was only yesterday that the stock market finally broke through to new lows for the year.  Before that, it had been holding at the bottom of its recent trading range. 

Guesss what?  Today the stock market is recovering to about the same level at which it started yesterday.  Right. All of this PANIC, and we are no lower on the stock market than the previous low levels of the year.  As I have told you (as a seansoned stock market investor), the August-September time period has included at least one MAJOR decline in the stock market since 1994--14 consecutive years.  I heard Jim Cramer last night describe his 30% DROP in his hedge fund in 1998--a year I have mentioned in this blog before in which there wsa a VICIOUS bear market that really went straight down in the mont o September.

What was the BEST investing opportunity in the last 50 years?  It was AFTER the CRASH of 1987 (WORSE than the 1929 crash--worse, in other words, than any one day decline in the Great Depression).  The next best investing opportunity (the declines after 9/11 were not bad, but Enron would knock the market back down) was after the bursting of the "Clinton" (no, he had nothing to do with it, but President Bush has little to do with this decline) dot. com bubble and the Enron drop.  In other words, I am talking March of 2002.  If you invested at the WORST of the "doom and gloom" you would have made major money.

Why is the market gyrating so much?  It is becuase of COMPUTER and OMENTUM trading.  The hdege funds, etc. no longer invest short term.  They DRIVE the market up in short term up moves, and they DRIVE the market down in short term down moves.  This is hardly "evil", although I would be in favor of trying to figure out a way of limiting computer program trading further than it has already been limited.

This point is that PANIC over short term stock market moves these days merely brands you as stupid.   Yes, the stock market has not done WELL this year, and neither has the eoncomy.  However, netire has done panic-worthy TERRIBLY.  We still don't have an official recession (contrary to the end of the Clinton Presidency), and we were due for a correction becaue of the irrational exuberance of the housing bubble. 

One o of the most DANGEROUS emerging "mantras" of the present situtation is that CENTRAL PLANNING can keep us from ever having another recession, and can solve our economic problems.  Exactly the opposite is true.  We will destroy ourselves with that attitude. 

Will the market go back down tomorrow?  it is certainly possible.  But these one day moves mean little.

Now we come to the Democrats.  They are ROOTING for the market to fall and for the economy to fail.  What a SAD situation for a political party to get into.  That is especially true when Democrats and their allies in the media (with soome help from McCain) are doing their best to DESTROY our economy by destroying public (consumer) confidence by EXAGGERATING how bad off we are.

Should you not vote against people who are doing their best to DESTROY you for political gain? I think so.

No comments: