Monday, February 23, 2009

Wall Street: Conservatives (irrationally, including Limbaugh) Embrace the Stupidest People on Earth

Have you noticed how conservatives have suddenly embraced the newly minted fascists/Communists on Wall Street as the ultiate authority on Obama's performance? Yes, Rush Limbuagh has now commonly quotes how far stocks are down each day. Yep. It hows how far conservatism has fallen that conservatives are now embracing the Stupidest People on Earth as the "experts" on the economy.

Whatever you may think, this blog is about ideas. It is not "partisan". By that, I mean that I do not engage in partisan posturing silmply because I think it will "sell". This blog, of course, has a definite conservative point of view, but does not simply regurgitate conservative "talking points".

I am saying that I think Rush, and the rest of the conservatives suddenly measuring Obama by the irrational stock market, are merely posturing for partisan reasons. No, I do not feel sorry for Obama on this score. Democrats (and the mainstream media) have made hay by trashing the economy for the entire 8 years of the bush Presidency--ultimately a self-fulfilling prophecy, along with the Bush/Paulson panic. Most of that time the economy was pretty good--sometimes really good. What goes around comes around, and I am not sorry for you poor leftists out there seeing what constant negativity can accomplish--the constant negativity including President "World" Obama himself, who can't seem to break himself from campaign mode.

Since October, this blog has absolutely proven to you that Wall Street has become a computer gaming casino rather than any kind of rational guage of the economy. Conservatives who are now acting otherwise are irrational themselves (eve if for a rationally partisan purpose).

Nor is it really good partisan tactics, despite "sounding good". What is the reputation of Republicans and conservatives that has killed them most over the years--a reputation that was only briefly countered in the Reagan years? It is the idea that Republicans are on the side of Wall Street and Big Business, and not on the side of the people That reputatioin has not been accurate since Barry Goldwater, but there is some residue, or "taint", of this attitude that just won't go away. Conservatives can't seem to cut themselves free of Wall Street and Big Business, even though modern conservative ideas have little relationship to either. Wall Street, as documented in this blog and as Rush Limbaugh points out when he is not suggesting Wall Street is an expert on economic policy, has beomce socialist--for the benefit of Wall Street. This is what I have called--somewhat accurately--"fascism/Communism.

You doubt me? Don't ever do that. Go back to the archives of this blog since October, in those blog entries entitled: "Wall Street: The Stupidest People on Earth" (along with other entries under different titles). Every single one of those entries has been proven correct.

Remember when this blog told you that the big 1000 point up moves at the time of the initial Paulson bailout were irrational, and the the huge up and down moves in stocks were merely computer momentum players exaggerating each move up and down? Was I not right?

Yes, the dirty little secret is that the stock market is now little changed from the Paulson/Bush lows of last October, and almost totally unchanged from the subsequent market lows on November 20. Oh, the Dow is slightly lower than November, but the overall market is about in the same place--only a little below the level to which the stock market sunk in October. All of the stock market volatility has been a lot of "sound and fury, signifying nothing". Oh, it has signified something. It has signified that Wall Street is totally irrational, and dominated by computer gaming rather than real investment.

For example, what is the recent HIGH of the market? Well, in a totally irrational move, the stock market went straight up right before Obama was elected. The Dow went above 9,000. Then the market, in an equally irrational move (except a rational reaction to the irrationality of the first move--the sock market went straight down to the low of November 20. Then, in another irrational move, the stock market ended the year with two "record" up days, and continued above 9,000 again. Now the stock market has declined (with blips u) back to the November low, and slightly below that on the Dow.

Look at the archives of this blog. I called each and every major fictional move in the stock market, WITH FORESIGHT (no hindsight here). Just where, in all of these fictional moves, has Wall Street shown accurate foresight about the economy? All Wall Street has shown is that it is sick--a place where investing has given way to computer gaming. Sure, eventually the direction of the economy will be clear enough so that the stock market moves out of its recent range--even, ultimately, perhaps back above Dow 9,000. But these dramatic moves, based on mere political developments magnified by computer momentum trading, is not a rational basis for evaluating economic policy.

This blog's accuracy rating (much better than the mythical "approval rating" beloved of the media, so long as it fits their agenda) has risen to 99.4% mainly because of my accuracy in predicting upward market moves. Right now, I would expect the next fairly big move to be UP--not because the economy is getting better but because of the computer range trading we are in. We are at the very bottom of the trading range the market has been in since October, and we are due for a bounce. What might derail that bounce would be news so bad that even the computer gamers on Wll Street cannot ignore it. Further, any such bounce will again be total fiction unless the fundamentals of the economy (not political posturing) actually appear to be turning around. Until either the economy obviously collapses, or there is actual evidence that a recovery is beginning to occur, the computer gamers on Wall Street are going to continue to move the stock market in a range determined by their computer programs.

Still doubt me, about the irrationality of both Wall Street--and Limbaugh and conservatives embracing Wall Street? Remember the crash of 1987 (I think, if my memory is correct). That was the first stock market crash since 1929. It occur ed during the Presidency of Ronald Reagan. Are conservatives saying that the economic policies of Ronald Reagan caused the ONLY stock market crash since 1929 (unless you count the slow motion crash in October/Novermber of last year)? See how irrational this reference to the "wisdom" of Wall Street is? That crash of 1987 happened to be, by the way, the best investment opportunity since the Great Depression, for the very reason that it was caused more by computer program selling than any fundamentals of the economy. Based on the foundation laid by Reagan, the country was about to enter into a time of great prosperity. You would not know it from the stock market--already at the beginning stages of becoming the kind of irrational computer gaming casino that is exceeding the excesses of the 1920's, but on steroids because we are now in the age of computer program trading.

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