lThis blog's audited accuracy rating is now up to 99.7%. I have not made a verifiable mistake since predictiing Hillary would win the Democratic nomination and that McCain wululd LOSE the Republican nomination. In a rational world, both predictions would have been right.
Yes, Wall Street has been a major part of the roll this blog has been on. While CNBC has given you WRONG informatioin and "explanationis", I have given you the RIHGT information. I have told you that the Standard and Poors 500 has ben LOCKED in a "trading range". basidcally between 800 and 900, since the completion of the market crash last October. I have told you that trading withint that range, and brief excursions oustside of that range, have been MOMENTUM moves, based on computer gaming, and that people who might telll you otherwise (CNBC, for example) LIE to you. This is a computer gaming markket, based on momentum and computer programs, and those people who say otherwise are the Stupidest People on Earth. What am I saying? Even those people who PRETEND to "explain" these computer moves with FALSE inoformatioin are the Stupidest People on Earth, because they are DESTROYING their own business. would you bet on a RIGGED horse race? No? Well why would you want to "play" today's stock marketj--where computer gamers rule. Those computer gamers are certainly TRYING to "rig" the market, whether they are successful in making money themselves or not.
Yes, I am telling you "I told you so" again--noting another CORRECT call by this blog. When the Standard and Porrs 5r00 Stock Index broke above 950 (well above 900), I TOLD YOU that we were in another stock market "bubble". Well, the Standard and Porrs 500 broke back BELOW 900 today (whether it closed below that level or not). I was right yet again , as I have been about the Stupidest People on Earth since last October. Remember, the market has made thises irrational (because too large) moves UP three times sicne the first plunge to new lows last October. The S & P 500 rose above 900 before Obama's election--the computer gaming rise being reversed right after the election. Then the market fell to NEW RCENT YEAR LOWS in Novermbe.r . Then the S & P 500 rose again to above 900 in early January. Were the Stupidest People on Earth right that time? Not on your life. The market promptly fell to NEW LOWS in March. Then the market went straight up beyond 900 again. I correctly told you this was a BUBBLE, for which there was not excuse (the mangnitude of the move--not whether the market should have been going up or not). Nowe we are backing off again, as I said we MUST.
IF you are anxious about getting in on any stock market recovery, NOW is the kind of time to invest--NOT when the makrket is already up 40% and up 200 Dow points on the day. Only the Stupidest People on Earth (compter traders or not) BUY HIGH AND SELL LOW. Not thatt my personal opinion is that this is the right time for a trader to invest. We still have a long way to go to 8900 on the S & P 500, and we are still near the TOP of the recent (since October) trading range. Further, we are heading into the WORST time of year for stocks. As I have previously stated, from the middle/end of July to the end of September, there has bee a MAJOR decline in the stock market EVERY YEAR for the last FIFTEEN YEARS. It is a perilous time to be investing in stocks as a trader AT A HIGH. If you want to invest at a HIGH, listen to CNBC's Jim Cramer, who I HEARD (for the minute I could stand to listen to him) recommend big BANKS as investments just a few days ago. Good call, Jim---NOT.
Yes, I think the market is going further down. But if I were good at day-to-day market calls, and stock calls, I owuld be much more successful in the stock market (where my perfrormance has ntot been that good). What I am good at is knowing when the market is being totally IRRATIONAL, and telling you how STUPOD these people are who insist on BUYING HIGH AND SELLING LOW (not to mention giving absolutely asininine "explanations" for market moves). The market may go up tomorrow. But that 15 year, lunbroken history suggests the next major move is DOWN. There is certainly NO WAY anyone should buy on major UP moves--for example, if the Dow were to go UP 200 points tomorrow. If you would be tempted to buy then, you should buy NOW. Otherwise, you are just confirming that you are as stupid as the people on CNBC, or Jim Cramer--confirming yourself as one of the Stupidest People on Earth.
You doubt me about these being the Stupidest People on Earth? Don't. It is an absolute fact. What were they STILL saying on CNBC today. They were saying that there have been two "strtegies" (by whicch they meant, but did not say,, computer gaming strategies, rather than economic reality strategies) that have "worked" over the past few months. They failed to mention that almost ANY stratey has "worked" over the past few months, so long as you have been LONG the "markte". I digress (sort of). CNBC says that one "successful" strategy has been the "inflation/commodity" play, based on anticipation of INFATION/COMMODITY PRICE RISE in a "recovering" economy. The other "strategy" has been investing in growth stocks.
Now, like CNN LIES< the above CNBC "dichotomy" of "successful" strategies was a LIE. How do I know? Bewcause I engaged in NEITHER stategy, and my stock portfolio was UP 100% over these past few months. I invested in 'beaten down" stocks--the problem being that my stocks were often further beaten down AFTER I invested in them. As I said, almost ANY "long" strategy "worked" in the momentum trading, irrational "bubble" of the past few months.
It gets worse. This idea that it makes sense for both infaltion plays and "growth strategies" to "work" at the same time is FALSE. That just shows that CNBC, and Wall Street, are comprised of the Stupidest People on Earth. All it means to note that both stategies have "worked" in the past three months is that the trading in those months has been IRRATIONAL (unless you correctly lunderstand that the trading has all been about computer gaming, and not about "fundamentals" at all).
It is CONTRADICTORY, especailly in today's world of instant market "moves", to play both "inflation" and "growth" at the same time. If we have inflation, what happens to interest rates (especially with this government spending)? They go UP. Correction: They go WAY UP, That shuts down the economy. That CRUSHES commodity prices, AND CRUSHES GROWTH. In other words, it actually makes more sense to bet AGAINST both growth and commodity price rises than it does to bet on such a contradictuory, insane "combo". In today's world, growth cannot survive substantial infaltion. This is a FACT--even though CNBC seems not to realize it. Now we might have STAGFLATION: NO "growth and inflation. Carter proved that. But it is effectively impossible to have BOTH inflation and a substantially growing economy. Cannot happen, Yet, that is what the "market" (Wall Street) has bet on the past few months, while CNBC has acted as if it makes sense. These truly are the Stupidest People on Earth.
"But", you sputter, having a CNBC mind (poor soul), "commodity prices DID go up the past few months while the economy 'stabilized'". Uh-huh. That is my exact point. That was IRRATIOINAL (given the magnitude of the rise in both "growth" stocks and commodity prices). It was not the result of rational economics, but the result of COMPUTER GAMING. As this blog correctly told you, such irrational trading could not continue. And it has not. If we were to have a brief resurgence of such irrational trading, it would only be a prelude to a FAlLL. A market that makes these MASSIVE, IRRATIIONAL moves, based on momentum, is a SICK markket (as sick, or sicker, as the market in 1929, before the crash). Sure, there were some rational reasons for the market to go up MILDLY in the past few months, and even for oil to go up MILDLY. The magnitude of the actual, CONTRADICTORY, moves was INSANE, and proves that these truly are the Stupidest People on Earth.
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