Blog 5,358, Associated Press 0 (Accuracy Score)

The number of new unemployment claims for last week was realeased today. Read my article after last Thrursday's release of the previous week's number. I told you that the Associated Press LIED to you last week, and I told you exactly how--IN FORESIGHT of this week's REVISED number. Everyweek, the government reports the unemployment claims filed in the previous week, AND revises the number of new unemployment claims reported the previous week. Here ae the LIES from last week:


1. The AP reported last week, along with the rest of the liars in the media, that the number of unemployment claims fell 14,000, down to 418,000. As this blog told you at the time, that was a LIE, because the number was subject to revision this week. And the revision has been consistently UPWARD. As I have told you eevery week, it is comparing apples and oranges-an utright LIE--to compare the UNREVISED number reported each eek with the REVISED number reported the previous eek. Thus, last week's number was REVISED this week from 418,000 to 427,000. Yep. The number of new unemployment claims only "improved" an insignificant 5,000 last week, insteead of the 14,000 LIE reported last week by the AP (and reallyl all of the rest of the media). The four-week average actually went UP last week.


2. Last week, the AP reported that the number of new unemployment claims was "better than economists had expected". Economists had expected that new unemployment claims last week would be 420,000, leading the LIARS at the AP (comparing aplles and oranges) to say that the actual 418,000 number was "better than expected" Read no. 1 above again. The actual number of new unemployment claim last week was 4267,00, as REVISED. Remember, the AP nows this revision is coming, and still reports as if it does not know it. That is the very essence of a PATHOLOGICAL LYING ORGANIZATION. Yep. As this blog stated was probably the case last week, in advance, the actual revied number last week was WORSE than expected. The despicable AP got it exactly wrong, and I told you last week that they did.


What about this week. The unrevised number of new unemployment claims reported this Thrusday was 405,000. The AP, as usual, reported the LIE that this represented a drop of 22,000 from last week. On an apples to apples basis, the "drop" was 13,000 (418,000 minus 405,000). Remember, the 405,000 is subject to REVISION next week. If the revision is the same as this week's revision, the actual number this week would be 414,000. Now the 9,000 revision is rather large, as the usual revision is more like 4,000. Still, until you see the revision it is a LIE to compare a revised number with an unrevised number.


Further, the despicable AP repeated its usual LIE about the number being "better than expected". Economists had expected 415,000. But, again, the number will be REVISED next week. If the revision is the same as this week, the number would NOT be "better than expected"--unless lyou are going to LIE further and suggest that there is any material difference between 414,000 and 415,000. Remember, the number last week was actually 7,000 WORSE than expected, after being reported to be "better than expected". That is the real Big Lie here: that these reported numbers are concrete numbers that can be looked at as exact numbers, and asinged meaning based on that assumption. That is a LIE. There is actually an enormous margin of error in each week's number--even beyond the EXPECTED revisiion--and it is a LIE to suggest otherwise. These numbers can only be evaluated OVER TIME, but the lying AP never rports them over time (except in an often false, interpretive way to suuport the AP agenda.). The AP NEVER does what this blog does (and will do in the next article), and give you the numbers over fuor weeks, along with an overview of the history of the nubmers over a priod of months and years.


Boycott Fox News. Yep. I have been telling you that for weeks, and Fox keps confirming I am right. Fox not only repeated the AP lies, as it doees every week on these unemployment claim numbers, but went at least as far as the lying AP by sayng that this was the "best number in three months." First, this is the UNREVISED NUMBER. Second, the number REPORTED last week, before revision, was 418,0000. The number REPORTED six weeks ago was 414,000. The revised number that time was 420,000. This 405.,000 number is INSIGNIFICANTLY different from those numbers. It is not only subject to revision, but the MARGIN OF ERROR on a weekly basis is much more than this. Fox went on to LIE and suggest that Thursday's number was so good that it gives a signal that the labor market is improving. HOGWASH. That is a LIE. If the number continues down next week, that MAY mean something. Otherwise, the main pont of this week's number is that it stayed above 400,000, and the four-week average stayed around 424,000 (a very small change). These are BAD numbers, and NOT a sign of labor "improvement". Nope. Not even a sign that we can hope the labor makrket is improving. That only can be said if the nuber CONTINUES DOWN for several weeks (as it has continued HIGH for at least 14 weeks). Did I jut call Fox News a nest of LIARS. Yep. I did. And I even know the reaons. Fox uncritically uses the despicable AP for its information.


It gets wore. This Thursday's reported new unemployment claim number is for a HOLIDAY WEEK. Furtrher, Minnesota is SHUT DOWN (the government of the whole state, presumably including unemployment claims offices). This makes this Thursday's number, as was true of last week's number, even more unreliable than usual. We may have to see a whle month of new numbers, after Minnesota resumes business, before we know for sure what is going on. No, I don't know if Minnesota is somehow continuing to process unemployment claims. But it can hardly be reliable informatin. All in all, net week MAY give us an idea of whether there is realy any hope we are "improving". More likely, we will have to observe several weeks more--non-holiday weeks--before we can even attmept an evaluation. For now, all we can say is that the number has stayed above 400,000, and at 424,000 for the 4 week average, which means that we have NOT IMPROVED in more than EIGHT MONTHS.


The headline is accurate, if no more exact than the weekly unemloyment claim number. I know of NO case in which this blog has been wrong, and lthe AP right. The opposite happens EVERY WEEK, and has for more than seven years.


P.S. No proofreading or spell checking (bad eyesight).