Rea my previous article, posted LAST NIGHT on th is blog--with NO 'inside' information. It has to be one of the best exaamples of ORESIGHT ever put in print, even though it is fairly routine for this blog. The number for new unemployment claims was releaed, as usual, this Thursday, and her is the Bloomberg headline:
"Jobless claims rise, showing seasonal volatility"
Yep. I not only told you WHAT would happen. I told you WHY. And some of you people doubt me, like on whether women should have the vote. What did I tell you last night? First, I told you about the SEASONAL VOLATILITY. Second, I told you that the numbers releasd the past two weeks were URE FICTION, and that the best GUESs as to what the "real" number might be would be to AVERAGE the numbers the prviuos two weeks (which turned out to be 356,000 and 399,000o). I told lyou that the number released last wek would probably be REVISED by 3,000 or 4,000. It WAS--to 356,000 from 352,000. I told you that the BEST GUESS for the number to be released TODAY was that AVERAGE of teh past two weks, or about 380,000 (between 375,000 and 380,000). . The actual number (a LIE) released today was 377,000. How is it POSSIBLE to make a more accurate PREDICTION than this. Forget "surveying" perpetually "surpirised" economists. COME TO ME. Oh, why is the 377,000 number a LIE? Again, that number will be REVISED next eek--most likely UP the usual 3,00 or 4,000. On an apples-to-apples basis, joblesss claims rose 265,,000 this week (from 352,000 to 377,00) The headlines says that they rose 21,000, becaue the headlines ALWAYS LIEF--comparing this week's UNREVISED NUMBER with last week's REVISED NUMBER.
If you read last night's article, you will also get the correct information that these numbers are NOT EXACT, and have a LARGE marging of error. That makes it even more impresssive that I predicted today's number ALMOST EXACTLY, considering that these numbes are written on water and only have any significance at all over time. This should prove to you thatt he way the media REPORTS these weeky and monthly numbers is DISGRACEFUL--showing them to be INCOMPETENT and DISHONEST.
Okay, so today's number was aboutt he same as the average of the numbers for the previous two weeks. More than that, the number has been basically UNCHANGED for at least 6 weeks. Yet, you may see the media tell you that there is some kind of 'trend" established. Hogwash. The weekly number is NOT "steadily dropping", een after you filter out the fictional noise. All you can say is that there was somewhat of a ONE-TIME "drop" in the jobless claims number in the holiday season (from right around 400,0000 to 381,000--confirmed in subsequent weeks, but with NO IMOPROVEMENT SINCE THEN). Even this could be simply a combiantion of the new seasonal pattern that the U.S .economy may have fallen into, along with the mild WEATHER. Still, NO "steady trend", or any TREND AT ALL. The only "trnd" is taht we seem to be repeating the pattern of last year, when the weeky number fell l under 400,000 for a number of weeks, only to rebound in the spring and summer.
What about next week? Obviously, the "bst guess' would be around that same 375,000-380,000 number that seems to have been about the AVERAGE for more than two months now--without significant change, after filtering out that noise. But, obviously, the number could either JUMP back to 400,000, or DROP back down. some. And YOU--if not the mmedia---KNOW (becxause this blog has told you) that any such ISOLATED, one-week "move" in the number is MEANGINGLESS, until confirmed in subsequent weekyy numbes. We now have NO TREND (up or down), and not really any trend from LAST YEAR (no real improvement), other than this new seasonal pattern that the jobless claims number--and other numbers on teh economy--see to get better in the second half of the year, with the jobless claims number looking good at the end of the year and first twomonths of the next year (in comaprions with the previus summer), only to have the jobless claims number SPIKE as we approach summer.
Will history reporeat, or is the economy doomed to "falter" again? And what do GASOLINE prices and "Bailout Ben" Bernanke have to do with this "buming along the bottom". Stay tuned. We will all find out. Contrary to the media, I will even give yu SOME guidance anlng the way, even though I can't possibly predict the future, in the future, quite as well as I did last night (not consistently, anway).
P.S No proofreading or spell checking (bad eyesight).