Wednesday, March 7, 2012

Santorum's Main Problem: Delegates

Mitt Romney did not do much yesterday, except get closer to the GOP nomination--simply because Romney is winning delegates and no one else really is (on a scale that matters). Romney won Massachusetts, but that meant NO (noting) more thatn Newt Gingri ch winning Georgia BIG. Romney won Virginia, but the VOTE in Virginia meant NOTHING. The real drama in Virginbia was over when Rick Santroumm and Newt Gingrich failed to geton the allot in Virginia. Romney TIED in Ohio with Cantourm, with the actual "victor" meaning NOTING. The problem for Santorum, though, is that Romney was GUARANTEED more dlegates from Ohio becaue Santorum did not even get his delegates on the ballot in Ohio. You will remember that in 2008, Hillary Clinton WON the Texas primary, and ended up with LESS delegates than Obama (as she got in a positon whre mere ARITHMETIC made it IMPOSSIBLE for Clinton to actually win the noination--no matter how many ""state" "victories" she won. Santorum is laready fast approaching that point.

Look at next Tuesday. There is a very good chance that Rick Santroum can "win" the Alabama and Mississipi primaries, but Romney will continue to pile up DELEGATES. Santorum--by the way the process works--cannot gain that many delegates in Mississippi and Alabama. This blog told you after the Michigan primary the key truth: Michigaan was the LAST sate where Santorum had the POTENTIOAL to ultimately KNOCK OUT Romney--so that it might not matter that Santourm was behind in delegates.

Nope Despite what you may have heard on CNN, or the unfair and unbalanced network :(which was WQORSE than CNN last night, and not worht listening to), it absolutely DID NOT MATTER whether Santroum "won' Ohio last night. Now both CNN and the unfaair and unbalanced network were saying last night--the difference being that the unfair and unbalanced network was actually MORE UNFAIR to Santourm and Gingrich (mainly, I hink, because the mainstream media mantra is that Romney is being "fatally weakened"--which is not the case because the reace in November is NOT being decided now)--both networks conveyed the message that the only reason that it "mattered" who "won" Ohio was lthe HEADLINES. and the PERCEPTION. In other words, and I thhink the unfair and unbalanced network was MORE worried about the effect it would have on "their guy" Romney both networks agreed that it made NO SENSE to say that a few thousand votes in Honhio made that much deifference (when they had NO effect on the delegates awarded, or almost none).

Look at just how STUPID bout CNN and the unfaira nd unbalanced network are ADMITTING they are. They both effectively said that it is STUPID to give a few thousand MEANINGLESS votes this much effect, but that they would have that much effect because the MEDIA ARE STUPID AND LIE TO THE PEOLE> "Jouunalism' may be the only profession I know where they are PROUD of being STUPPID, and of admitting how DISSHONEST they are.

Nope. There was o way Santorum could "win" last night, because his PROBLEM is delegates. Romney is going to continue to pile up delegates, because he has the MONEY to "compete" everywhere, an dbecause Santorm has a PROBLEM in LIBERAL states like New York, California Maryland, etc. Even with a "winner-take-all" state like Texas, Santorum will quickly reach a point where he CANNOT WIN. No, even if Santorum had clearly won Oihio last night, it would not have mattered. As this blog told you, Michingan was the LAST state where a Santorum "victory" was goning to matter (and then mainly becaue the media is so stupid, and gives too much effect to SMALL "victories). There is no way for Santourm to "knock out' Romney after Michigan, no matter how many "states" Santroum wins. In contested states, Santorum wsa the CLEAR winner yeterday, so long as you understand that ohio was a TIE. Taht is, Santourm was a clear winner in OVTES. In delegates, Santorum was a LOSER before the day began.

Nope. Santourm is in a p9osition where he HAS to start paying attention to DELEGATES, and developing a DLEGTE STRATEGY (with the knowledge that Romney will be there at the end). It is a difficu;lt task, and means that SOMEWHERE (like Lillinois, New Yrok, California or the like) and really multiple somewheres, Santourm is going to have to start GAINING DELEGATES in substantial numbers. I LIVED lthrough the Ragan-Ford battle in 2976, and it is WRONG to call that a "brokered" convention. Sure, Ford did NOT have the nominatin "locked up" in COMMITTED delegates, but he was SO CLOSE that his ESTABLISHMENT BACKING guaranteed hi the nominatin. Despite what CNN said, it DOES NOT MATTER if Romney is "30 votes short" of having te nomination totally locked up. If Romney is THAT CLOSE, it weill be effectively impossible for him to be denied the nomination (unless the "establishment" somehhow regards Romney as "so wounded" taht they FORCE him out in favor of a new establishmhment person--a ploy so DANTEROUS thaqqt it would have to be DESPERATE, and is VERY unlikely).

Romney's VOTE yesterday was unimmpressive---especailly given his MONEY advantage. But Santroum has NOT shown that he can WIN DELEGATES enough to stop Romney. Until he does, Romney is still going to be regarded as the "inevitable" nominee.

No. Neither this media blather about who "won" Ohio, or this media blather about Romney being "woudned" and "weak" mean ANYTHING. Polls now mean NOTHING (not a matter of opinion, but an objective FACT), and the media LIES when it tells you otherwise. November will not be decided until August, September and October, and THAT electin wil be more aboutOBAM than it is about the GOP nominee (unlesss that nominee proves to be a bad candidate IN August, September and October). But the media is right, almost by accident--as almost everything they say is wrong-that Romney pretty much still looks like the GOP nominee. It is all about DELEGATES, and Santorum simply cannnot change that. He has lost his chance to make it about somethning else--or at least probably has--and Santorum is going to have to figure out how to DEFEAT ROMNEY IN DELEGATES (not just infividual state votes).

P.S. No proofreading or spell chhecking (bad eyesight). Look how CLOSE, by the way, Romney has come to being KNOCKED OUT of this reace (probably). Gingrich CoULD have beatne Romney in Florida with GOOD DEGATES. Santroum COULD have abeaten Romney is Michigan, despite his disadvantage in money. Either result would have put a Romney nomination in EXTREME doubt. As stated above, and after Michigan, there is now NO single state, or single night of results, that can derail Romney It is now a LONG SLOG--advantage Romney, even if it is not quite over. Message to the gOP estalbishment: this shows, even if Romney survives, that you are BLOWING IT in terms of the Vietnam War standard ("hearts and minds'). At best, all you are doing tis building more an dmore people who think like ME--that something has to be done about YOU (not jsut abut Obama).

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