The report on new unemplyment claims came out this morning, as usual, and it exposed media LIES that have gone nuclear. This has gotten ridiculous, it is so bad, even though this blg has exposed the LIES in the way the media reports this weekly number for YEARS> Before going on, read last Fridya's blog article on last Thursday's report, and realize this blog is NEVER WRONG (except, perhaps, in underestimating how UNRELIABLE these numbers are).
What wwere the disgracefu media headlines last week (pointed out, IN FORESIGHT, as disgraceful by tis, blog, although it was even worse than I thought)? Last week's orgasmic headlines were that the number of new unemployment claims last week had FALLEN 5,000, to 348,000, the LOWEST level since February, 2008. That repeated the SAME media headlines from six weeks or so before, when the INTITIAL report had also shown (supposedly) new unemplyment claims at 348,000. Problem: this was all a LIE, as this blog todld you. The media was comparing an UNREVISED number (the 348,000 initially "reported" last week) with a REVISED number (revising the number initially reported the previoius Thrsuday). In actual fact, as this blog reported, last Thursday number showed NO IMPROVEMENT in the number of new unemployment claims in two monthsand merely kept us in the SAME range of 350,000 to 365,000 that we have beenin almost this entire year. Little did I know howRIGHT this blog was--although you should know by now that this blog is NEVER WRONG.
The REVISED number of new unemployment claims for LAST THURSDAY was 364,000. That was an UPWRD REVISION (bad) of fully 16,000. So much for new unemployment claims FALLING 5,000 last week, to a "new" four year low. The media can now RECYCLE the SAME LIES again, becakuse the REVISED number has STILL not been below 350,000 in those same last four years, although it has been right at 350,000 several times in the past few months. We are now approaching THREE MONTHS that the number of new unemployment claims has been in that same 350,000 to 365,00 range. Pluse, we now find out that the number is at the TOP of that range, instead of at the botoom (as reported last week, in the weekly MEDIA LIES--which incudes the LIES of teh "business network" of the unfair and unbalanced company--the "F" word). It gets wrose, from the media: far wrose (hard as that is to belive).
The nnumber of new unemplyment calims reproted this mrning was 359,000. Notice that is 11,000 ABOVE the number initially rreported last Thursday (when a reported 4,000 "drop" has now turned into an 11,000 RISE). What is the media headine I saw (on MarketWatch.com)? Right. You just can';t be a WORSE liear than this. The media headline was 'Improving trend in Jobless claims continues," and the article says that the number of new unemplyment claims FELL 5,000 (the same LYING headine as last week). On an apples-to-apples basis (comapring the UNREVISED reprot with the UNREVISED report), this is an obvius LIE. This was acttaully a RISE of 11,000. Remember, the 359,00 is an UNREVISED number, to be REVISED nexte week. The revision is amost ALWAYS upward, and has consistently been revised UPWARD by about 3,000. That would mean that the most likely number for this Thursday, as revised, will be around 362,0000. BUT. Look at the GAMES being played with these numbers, and especailly with the REPORTING of these numbers. Thjese people (the MIEDIA, and maybe the Labor Department) have been concluslively exposed as LIARS (some of the wrost, most obvious, liars to ever exist on this Earth). That is how a BAD reprort on new unemplyment claims (last Thursday's REVISED 364,000 and this week's HIGH number of 359,000--high for the range over the past three monghs) can be SPUN as "good" news showing an "improving trend".
Again, what the last wo months show is NO IMPROVEMENT in new unemplyment claims for going on three months. In fact, the last two weeks show a DETERIORATION (repeating the patter on the previous two years at this time of year), even though that deterioration has not yet last long enough, nor has the number gone high enough, to say that the"trend" has turned NEGATIVE. We CAN definitively say--giving the LIE to media LIEARS--that there is NO present "trend": NO IMPROVEMENT in new unemplyment claims for going on three months (almsot this entire year). But the media REPORTING of the way that tkhese numbers are released, and then revised, has NEVER had a headline: "New unemplyment claims rise to two month high." Yet, that is exaclty what has happened. Today's report was BAD--not a contnuation of an "improving trend". Do you need any more evidence that you shuld pay NO ATATENATION to what the media says, other than to try to figure out their LIES (which is how this blog can help you).
Look at where we are. We know that today's headliness, and reportof a "fall" in new unemplyment claims, are LIES. We know that there is a substantial risk that the same DETERIORATION in these weeekly numbers that occurred the past two years is on the verge of taking place, although we can't yet be sure. WE know that the weekly numbers are unreliable. But a revison of 16,0000 is RIDICULUOS (although it has happened before). It again makes a LIE aout of the reporting of these emplyment numbers as concrete numbers, when they are basically ESTIMATES written on water. This was a 16,000 ERROR in the initial report . That is on top of a "margin of error" in the SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT which is 50,000 or more. That is why these weeky numbers ONLY mean something OVER TIME, and why the initially released weeky number (or even the revised number the next week) cannot be "reported" as a concrete number, unless lyou want to LIE. The meidia does ant to LIE.
Where is the APOLOGY from the media for the LIES on reporting these numbers? No apology, because these peole havve no shame. They are LIARS, and they know they are LIARS. But they don't care. They don't figure YOU caere. They figure that each week's lies disappear, and are forgotten, as this week's lies are put out--as if you shouuld pay jsut as much attentino to this week's lies as if you had not jsut been shown that the way the media reorts these numbers is always a LIE.
Look how bad off we are here, if we are not media liears. As stated, the consistent LIE has averaged about 3,000. That is, the number of new unemployment claims has been consistently revised UPWRD 3,000 or so the next week. But, this week, the number was revised UP that ridiculous total of 16,000 (seemingly to AVOID that headline, which has never happpened, that we have reached a recent HIGH, as the number is deteriorating). Therefore, what can we expect next wek? Can we expect the 359,000 to be revised DOWN, because last week's number was revised UP SO MUCH? It is really impossible to know what to expect, when you have this kind of aberrationn. Although it has happened before that this weekly revisoin has been above 10,000, it is rare. All we can say is that, in past occasins, the number has settled back into this CONSISTENT revision UPWARD of about 3,000 (CONSISTENTLY maknig the weekly number appear better than it really is). Are we suddenly going to have the REVISION bounce around as much as the weekly number bounces around? Taht is not what history wuld tell us. But who knows. The way these weekly numbers are REPORTED has more to do with FANTASY than reality. The real HEADLINE this morning shuld have been about taht ridiculous 16,000 REVISION of last week's number, and what it shows about the "meaning" of eacch Thrusday's initially reported number (not to mentin the media lies in reporting that weekly announced number). Maybe some of the articles tallk aobut his dEEP in the article. I don't see well enough to go into this in any kind of depth . That is the point of the medi LIES. They don't expect that even people wwo CAN SEE will go beyond the headlines, and maybe the first paragraph or two.
The media is simply uninterested in "journalism", or "facts". They think they are getting away with this, because they are all the SAME. I don't think they are. I believe that there "respect" for the media goes down every day, and is now lower than it has ever been--even for people who do not follow and esxpose the media LIES the way I do. On a gut level, people perceive that they are being lied to, because all the media cares about is a "storyline". Michael Crichton wrote "Airfarame" about a decade ago, and it has gotten much WORSE since then. My own concuson is that today's "journalists" are being TRAINED to be StUPID and DISHOENST. Read my weekly articles (almost, ) over the past few YEARS, on the meid areporting of these wekly released numbers on new unemplyment claims before you DARE to say I am overstating this. And this week's reporting, combined iwth last week's, is the WORST yet (when even I did not think it could get any worse).
P.S. No proofreading or spell checkng (bad eyesight).