Obama and Jobs: Obama Loses 1,610,000 plus Jobs in Four Weeks

This is my article on last Thursday's report on new unemployment claims for the previous week (this article being a little tardy). The headline was, as always, a lie The number of new unemployment claims was reported as 408,000--up 9,000 from the previous week That headline ws an outright lie. This number, as this blog has connsistently reported, is subject to REVISION the next week. On an "apples to apples" basis--comapring the number reported on Thrusday with the number reported the previous Thrusday--the number rose 13,0000 from the 395,000 number reported the previous Thursday. The 408,000 will be revised next Thursday--probably up 3,000 or more, if past history is any guide. Reporting the weeky numbers as if they are cast in stone is such a LIE that the persistence of the lie discrfedits the whole media.


Remembe r how the 395,000 reported the previous Thrsuday before last was breathlessly reported: "The first time under 400,000 in more than 4 months, and a sign the labor market is improving'. This blog correctly told you that was HOGWASH, and that the 395,000 would probably be revised upward to right around the 400,000 level. In other words, for all intents and purposes, the number WAS 400,000--NO "improvement over the previoius weeks, and NO improvement since early in the year (when the number dropped as low as 375,000, and was regularly beow 4000,000--even as the economy was slowing down). Yes, the 395,000 was REVISED upward to 399,000, as this blog had predicted would happen, and that made LIARS out of the entire media.


Look at the numbers for the previous 3 weeks (before this week's reported, unrevised, 408,0000), beginning with the most recent: 399,000, 402,000 and 401,000. Even the mainstream media and the unfari and unbalanced network, stupid as all of those people are, would have to agree that those three weeks were FLAT--no change at all There is NO statistical difference between 399,000, 402,000 and 401,000. All of that HYPE about the number droppng 'under" 400,000 was an absurd distortion.


What is even funnier is that this last Thursday's reported number of 408,000 was NOT especailly "bad" news!!!! Oh, a number of 400,000 is BAD--not good enough to reduce unemployment. But that was true of teh numbers for teh previous 3 weeks. Even if you assume a revision of the 498,000 to 411,000 or 412,000, that number actually DROPS the four week average (slightly) to about 403,000. In other words, we are STUCK at 400,000, which is where we began the ya.r, This is BAD. It is NO improvement over this entire year. But the unfair and unbalanced network spent an entire day "blaming" the collapse in the stock market on Thursday on such a "horrible' jobs nuber. The unfari and unbalanced network (which callls itself the "fair and balanced" network) LIED. The modest rise in ONE WEEK'S new unemployment claims number---which actually lowered the four week average slightly--had NOTHING (I preat: nothing) to do with the stock market drop last Thursday. Even the people on Wall Street are not that dumb--even if they are The Stupidest People on Earth. The new unemplyment claims number can ONLY be evalulated over time . Yes, you and I--not to mention Wall Streeet--would suspect that the number is going UP, because of all of the bad news. But th 408,000 in new unemplyment claims reported last Thursday represented NO--none, zilch, nada--PROOF that the number is deteriorating. It was not many weeks ago that the number was consistently above 420,000.. You could say that the number has "improved" since then, despite the idiots of the unfair and unbalanced networkk spending a full day FALSELY telling you how much "worse" the 408,000 number was, although the "improvement" (especiallly given the uncertainty in the reliability of the "seasonal adjustment" in each week's reported number) does not mean much . All we can really say is that, for 4 weeks, the number has averaged pretty close to 400,000, without ever really goig under 400,000. Nothing changed with Thursday's reported number from the previous weeks.


Now the weekly number of new unemployment claims will again be reporte--with the usual lies-on Thursday agai. IF the number rises above 420,000, that MIGHT be an indication we are sliding toward a significant deterioration. IF the number is between 390,000 and 410,000, it will mean NO CHANGE. You may see the media report differently, but the media LIES about the signifiicance of each weekly number. Even a number above 420,000 wold not mean a whole lot--other than continued no improvement--until a deterioration is confirmed in future weeks.


Well, I have done my bestr to prepare you for this Thrusday's false headlines onn the new unemployment claims report. Last Thursday did accomplish someting: It confirmed that you should BOYCOTT the unfair and unbalanced network as totally incompetent. You must look at these numbers in context, and with the understanding that each week's number is NOT even close to "exact" . This is NOT "counting (like on your fingers, for you leftists out there). These numbers are REVISED and ADJUSTED. You simply cannot take too much stock in a single week's number. Further, variations from week to week--even as much as 20,00 or more--MAY mean absolutely NOTHING (because there is some distorting factor, or simply statistical "noise").


No proofreading or spell checking (bad eyesight).