Obama Fails on Jobs, as Media Lies Again Exposed

While I was risking my life in the jungles of Boston and NYC--not to mention with my feminist daughters--you had to endure a Thursday without my analysis of the weekly report on the number of new unemployment claims. This was a good exercise for you. The questioni is whether you have learned to apply my methods any better than Dr. Watson ever learned to apply the methods of Sherlock Holmes.


What happened last week? Well, you had a literal ORGY of media hype as the reported number of new unemplyment claims supposedly fell under 400,000 for the firt time in 16 weeks. Elizabeth Barrett Browning: "How do I lie to thee; let me count the ways." Okay, I took liberties with the quotation. But my version accurately states the polilcy of the mainstream media, AND Fox News (part of the mainstream media, as far as I am concerned).


The number of new unemployument claims reported last week was 398,000. You don't have to have a degree in physics, with a minor in mathematics (as I do), to understand that such a number is a STATISTICALLY INSIGNIFICANT number lower than 400,000. But the LIES are much worse than that. As I have told you week after week, the weekly number is subject to REVISION the following week, and such revision has almost ALWAYS been at least 3,000 HIGHER. Did you realize that you wee listening to LIES last week, when the mainstream media made so much of the number "falling below" 400,000 (which the number did at the end of last year, only to increase 17 weeks ago as the economy slowed)?


My predictions come true, even when I am not here to make them As I have predicted weeek after week, last week's number was REVISED to 401,000--ABOVE 400,000. . So much for the liars of the mainstream media. And I would bert you have not seen this analysis on Fox, although you do hear it every week on Rush Limbaugh. Yes, as usual, I was FIRST, well before Rush--leading to the question of whether Rush's people read this blog.


Today's reported number was 400,0000-, which the mainstream media--as usual--reported in a LIE. Notice that 400,000 is UP from the reported 398,000 last week--UP under any reasonable, apples-to-apples comparison. However, the dishonest, stupid people of the mainstream media again reported the number as an IMPROVEMENT, because it was 1,000 lower than the REVISED 401,000 from last week. Problem: This Thursday's number is subject to the SAME REVISION next week, and that revision will likely be at least the same 3,000--again meaning this week's report of new unemplyment claims is WORSE than last week's (albeit by a statistically insignificant amount).


This is 17 weeks in a row that the number of new unemplyment claims has held at 400,0000 or above--a BAD number. 400,000 is a number NOT sufficient to lower the unemployment rate. It also represents NO IMPROVEMENT over this entire year, although the 4 week average has gone closer to 400,000--meaning that you might see a glimmer of an improvement over the last month--NOT from the beginning of the year, but from the higher levels over the past 4 months.


What does this mean for tomorrow's MONTHLY numbers on the unemployment rate and the number of net jobs "created" in Jully? It again means that tomorrow's numbers CANNOT BE GOOD--without calling the numbers into question. The second quarter "grew" at a disgraceful rate of 1.3%, subject again to REVISION. The weekly reportes of new unemployment claims have been BAD--always above that 400,000 number. That means that the monthly numbers cannot be good, unless they are to conflict with all of the other data.


Oh, last month onlyl showed a "gain" of 18,000 net jobs--subject to REVISION tomorrow (a revision more uncertain in direction than the weekly unemployment claims number). That means, from the way the seasonal adjustment seems to opeerate, that there is a fairly good chance of a REBOUND in July, even if there was realy no change in the job situation It would not be surprising to see about 100,000 jobs "added" to the economy, on a seasonally adjusted basis. It would also not be surprising to see NO jobs added. These numbers are written in sand, or water, and one month does not mean much It would be surprising, and suspicious, if the unemployment RATE improved in any significant way.


ADP, the private employee processing firm, reported this week that employee layoffs PLANNED by employers increased by 60%, indicating that even a fairly "good" set of numbers tomorrow would be in doubt for the next month. Tomorrow's numbers cannot change the ultimate conclusion of where we are: The employment situation has STALLED, and we are not improving.


No, I am not going to go into underemplyment, and discouraged workers. You should know all of that. The point is that even the official, headline numbers cannot show IMPROVEMENT in a stalled economy.


P.S. No proofreading or spell checking (bad eyesight).