Stock Market

In wild gyrations that proved my previous point that the stock market is now merely a computer gaming casino, the stock market did move up in the last hour today--after going NEGATIVE when the Fed first released its ridiculous statement (more about that tomorrow).


If you think that the stock market rise in the last hour meant anything fudnamental, or had any reational cause, then you don't know what today's stock market is all about. The late move of hundreds of points in mere minutes merely proved what I told you: Once the computer, momentum trading kicks in, THERE IS NO TOP AND THERE IS NO BOTTOM In other words, you are jsut showing you are one of those Wall Street Stupdiest People on Earth if you start looking for rational reasons for such a MOMENTUM, computer trading move from an oversold condition (with shrot covering as well). The move was almost purely "technical", although that is not saying much, since ALL market moves these days are pretty much devoid of connectin to the real world (except as an event may trigger the dIRECTION--not the magnitude--of the momentum move). The magnittude is realted to how much volatility treadeers seee, which has some relationship to events, but it is folly to try to seek rational reasons for these fundamentially non-rational, computer trading moves.


The market may go up a 1000 point tomorrow or it may go down the same amount. Or it may do both. Once traders, and the computers, get in this kind of renzy of computer, momentum trading, the moves tend to stay large (even in the absence of any real cahnge in economic events). A very small event (as the Standard and Poors dowgrade was, by the way, except in its unprecedented shock) may trigger a vVERY large move.


The RISK in the market remainsts grave, as the economy of the WORLD is at risk. But you are again deluded if you think that present day Wall Street relies on a rational "risk-revwared" analysis to determine the market movews.


You can telll these are the Stupidest People on Earth (not necessariy in making money, since they are LL this way, but in rational economic thinking or even rational explanations for their own actions) by the very way massive indiscriminate moves are described. Whole groups of stocks move without any rhymme or reason based solely on whether it is a "risk on" day or a "risk off" day. These are triggers for computer trading of a certain kind, unrealated to the "value" of individual stocks, and the very terms show that there is no ECONOMIC rationality to stock markets these days. I used to email stock market commentatiors, who would NOT say this puclicy, but WOULD agree with me that I am exactly right. I don't bother with that useless exercise any more, and you might rightly believe that I was at least prtially being humored. I am still right, and this does mean that those Wall Street "experts" who come up with those fancy "explanations" for daily market moves are LYING to you (at least in part). They weell know lthat the stock market has become at least somewhat disconnected from economic relaity, and that fundamental analysis is NEVER the full explanation of the directin and magnitude of a stock market move thse days.


Sorry I can't help you as to which way the market will go tomorrow. I would expect gyrations, as momentum traders fight over different computer algorithims and hype-induced mass bets. We may well see different prgrams gain ascendancy at different times, and again see a range of more than a thousand points for the day (from low to hiigh). This is evidence of a SICK makret, but the stock market has been sick for a long time--as I say, a computer gaming casino.


True. A truely massive external event--like imposion of Italy or something--would probably trigger a momentum move in s cerain direction. But it does nto take such an event to produce the same result, once the cascade of omentum trading takes hold in one direction or the other.