Tuesday, February 28, 2012

Rick Santorum's Problem: Delegates

No, Rick Santoum's problem now is not fundamentally "social issues". It is not Romney's money. It is not even the GgOP establishment. All of those things, and others, arfe now details.

The race between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama showed a fundamental truth: At some pont, the DELEGATE COUNT becomes virtuallyl impossible. Rick Santourm may be approaching that pont.

The problem is that Michigan may have been about the LAST individual sae where a Santorum victory would have made enogh of a difference to shift the delegate count. Remember, Romney is on the ballot in Virginia, while Santorum is not . No, again, Santourm is appproaching the pont where this MATTERS, because romney is going to PILE UP delegates, even if Santourm goes into individual states and icks them off. Taht is what happened to Hillary Clinton. She wsa winning states, but had no way to close the DELEGATE COUNT. Say Santouarm CONCENTATES on Ohio, and WINS Ohio on Super Tuesday. So what? Unless Santourm starts acually winning delegates, Roney's delegate lead is gong to simply grow. Romney has the oney to compete EVERYWHERE, and to simply use his organization to get some delegates here and delegates there. Santourm is not going to be able to match the money, which was why Michigan was impoortant. Romney's main advantage ha always been that he is loooked at as the "inevitable" candidate. That pr9oved to be WRONG, but the estalibshment still managed to pull it out for Romney, evenas the rank-and-fle gave every indicatin they did not want Romney. No, it is NOT even a matter of Romney being the "best" candidate to beat Barack Obama. Even the estab\lishment, I think, is realizing that may not be true, But Romney remains the SAFE candidate (in termsof simply getting "blown out', which was the advantage McCain had agaisnt Romney in 2008). The estalibshment ALWAYS looks at the most conservative candidates as "unsafe".

Again, however, this business of who can defeat Barack Obama is close to becoming irrelevant. At this pont, Santourm MUST HAVE A DLEGATE STRATEGY. I don't think "knocking out" Romney is even a possibliity, after Arizona and Michigan. Santourm is gong to have to sart winning ULTIPLE states, and fast. It is not going to do any good to claim "moral" victories,or even real victories in isolated staets. Hillary Clinton found that out, once the arithmetic is definitifely against you. Santourm can calaim a "mral" victory in Michigan. And it was NEVER real that Santourm had a "10 pont lead" in Michigan. Thos kind of polls have always been absurd. Sahtourm was always facing a major hurdle in Michigan.,m once Romney put all of his resources to bear. Santorum actually did wel, but it doeshim almost NO god. Santourm ahad his opportunity, but he just did not come across as enoguh of a charismatic politican to pull it off. The odds are now severly against Santourm, because Santourm is going to face ARITHMETIC. That will grind him down, and NO one or two victories will matter. yep I am saying Santourm now needs a "game changer", and that some unexpected vicotry is an individual state can no longfer provide that. Tonight, it looks more than it ever has that Rmney will be the GOP nominee. No, it will not matter to this blog. Tehre is still no way I will support RomneyA miracle could happen, and Snatourm someow pull it out. If not, I will be where I thought I would be: Looking at the November electin basically fromt he outside, without endorsing any candiatge in the general electin.

Note how this blog was RIGHT, as usual, on Newt Gingrich. Gingrich's only chance to even have an impact in this race was for Romney to LOSE in Michigan. Gingrich support is fading away, and his only cahnce was to derail Romney and hope for a miracle. Instead, the clueless Gingrich made attacks on Santourm right before Micihinga. That still is inexplicable to me, although it may be that the media entirely exaggerated just how hard Gingrich was attackng Santourm in Michigan. Gingrich, however, should not have been attackng Santourm at all. He needed to be doing everything he could against Romney (and Obama), hoping that Ropmhnney would lose Micigan, giving Gingrich a chance to back into the delegate race later. Nowe, I don't see a way froward for Gingrich. Of course, Gingrich may already have privately conceded defeat, and is just trying to "mend fences" with Romney and Romney supporters. Good luck, Newt.

In short, we are notw almsot at the "tippping ponit" on delegates, where it will be almsot imossible for Romney to lsoe the nomination simply because he will be able to accumulate enough delegates no matter what the results in individual states.

I call them as I see them. It is not quite over, but the fat lady may be about to sing.

P.S. No proofreading or spell checkng (bad eyesight). My brother tels me my typing is getting WORSE. What can I say. If I were getting paid for this, I would try to figure out a way to have someone else proofread this blog. As it is, I am afraid things will remain pretty much the same. If I had not used lup all of the sympathy I was born with at age 10, I would symlpathize with people who try to wade throught he word puzzles I provide for you. As I have no sympathy left for anybody, all I can say is my usual: Let it be a challenge to you. I make it worse for myself by being so wordy, but (like Romney--lol) I can only be who I am. I have never been able to keep within a Twitter character limit in my life.

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