Polls

I have told you before what the mainstream media--not to mention Sean Hannity, wo is infected with cable TV/mainstream media disease--will not tell you.

Polls (especially this far from an election, but generally) are meaningless, even EVIL, things.  As always, I am proven right alomst every single day, and the mainstream media proven wrong (and liars).  It is a LIE to report any poll as reflecting real "news", or an accurate COUNT of the opinions of people.  Every single poll is just an ESTIMATE, based on a fallibl sample (if you doubt this, consider what happens if the sample includes any number of people like me, who LIE to pollsters as a matter of principle) of a SMALL number of people.  In other words, 1,000 (usually about the sample) are asked a question, and their answers are projected to accurately reflect the opinions of more than 100 MILLION people.   At best, this is an educated guess, based on statistical assumptions (as to validity of the sample as being representative) that may or may not be true.  Even if the sample is representative, the EXPECTED (statistical) error is of LANDSLIDE dimensions.   Most polls have an EXPECTED error (possible error is always about 100%) of plus or minum 4% or so.  What is the last Presidential election that had a difference of EIGHT PERENT (or even 4%)?  And that assumes the validity of the sample.

Thus, you recently had the Gallup tracking poll as showing McCain and Obama EVEN.  At essentially the SAME time, the Los Angeles Times poll (quoted ecstatically on AOL "News") showed Obama ahead 12%.   Nope.  I don't care how you twist and turn about polls only being accurate for a single moment of time (which only emphasizes how USELESS they are), one of those polls was WRONG--maybe BOTH.  Yet, they both used the SAME supposedly "scientific" methods and statitical model. 

Now you have AOL reporting today the Newsweek poll purporting to show a McCain SURGE.  The last Newsweek poll showed Obama ahead 15 points.  The present one shows Obama ahead 3 points (statistical "tie"--see above about EXPECTED margin of error).  Think about how WORTHLESS both of these polls were, even if they accurately represented public sentiment at separate "moments of time".  Most likely, of course, both polls were meaningless--not only as to likely election results butg as to present real opinions of the American people.

Newsweek, of course, did NOT suggest that its polls are meaningless, or that ALL polls are meaningless.  Rather, Newsweek, in a fit of depression echoed on AOL "News" citing the poll with considerably less enthusiasm than it reported the last 15 point "margin" poll results. 

This all ends up with AOL trying to let this most recent Newsweek poll slide by as quickly as possible--waiting for the next poll that can be HYPED to prove that Obama is the Messiah, while McCain has been exposed as nothing more than an evil Republican running a terrible campaign.  Notice you don't see many mainstream media stories about how BADLY Obama is doing recently, even though Newsweek is reporting this McCain SURGE.  Instead, it is "tough to explain".  This merely means that the mainstream media BELEIVES that Obama SHOULD be way ahead, and therefore finds it easy to explain polls showing Obama doing well. It is polls which conflict with the mainstream media's world view that are "tough to explain". 

Nope.  I am NOT the same.  I don't pay attention to ANY poll.  I don't gloat over this last one (and would not even if I strongly surpported McCain).  I did not get depressed over the previous Newsweek poll.  I correctly regarded both polls as irrelevant, meaningless, and the refuge of lazy journalists who no longer know how to cover an election other than using polls and the prism of their own agenda.  It is FUN, however, to watch the media contortions over these meaningless poll results.  Here was my reaction to the AOL story citing the "tough to explain" Newsweek poll (a reaction I posted under the story):

This is FUNNY.  AOL "News" was ECSTATIC about the previous, meaningless poll that showed NOTHING.  Now AOL "News" (media in general) is DEPRESSED about another meaningless poll that shows NOGHING ("tough  to explanin" indeed!!!!!l).

This was after AOL carried pro-Obama PROPAGANDA from the anti-American, despicable Associated Preess over the weekend (labeled "analysis") about how Oama ENJOYED "contrast" with an (evil) Republican, instead of someone like Hillary Clinton--on the "right" (from AP/AOL point of view), if INFERIOR to the Messiah (Obama).  If you made the maistake of paying attention the the AP/AOL "analysis", you would have thought McCain was so far behind (and so wrong on the "contrasts" cited by the AP/AOL propaganda piece) that hemight as well withdraw and/or concede.  No wonder these peoople are depressed by polls that seem to contradict what they are saying!

Now Obama SHOULLD be way BELHIND (and may be, for all I know, as the polls are meaningless),  since he is objectively not qualified to be President, which he keeps proving by saying strange things (like dismissing the problem of illegal immigrants/immigrants not learning English as not worth worrlying about, when we SHOULD be worrying about our children learning SPANISH).

P.S.  See Friday's entries for the EXACT quote on Obmaa saying that parents should be worried about their children learning SPANISH, as he tried to avoid a question on people not knowing English in this country.  I still don't believe he said it, but he did. I still don't believe anyone can vote for a man who says things like that, and has so few qualifications to be President (the main one seemingly being that he reads a teleprompter really well, with feeling).  Now I have said, and continue to say, taht I find it hard to believe anyone can vote for McCain either.  However, he has at least PAID HIS DUES, and has the objective experience to be President, even if that just scares people like me as to the kind of President he will be for conservatives.