Tuesday, April 22, 2008

Barack Obama: Can He Win (the General Election)

See my prescient analysis yesterday as to the obstackes facing Barack Obama in the general election.

Problem for Democrats:  The nomination map arithmatic is exactly opposite to the electoral map arithmatic.

Obama is a big LOSER in almost all of the contested states that Democrats need to win the general election.   Pennsylvania merely confirms that (see that analysis YESTERDAY --before Pennsylvania, already assuming a Clinton victory--in this blog).  Ohio, Michigan, Florida, New Jersey, CALIFORNIA:  Democrats can only afford to loe ONE of those states (and probably Florida is lost to either candidate).  Barack Obama has not shown he can win ANY of those states.  Most of his nomination delegates have come from states Obama is guaranteed to LOSE in the general election (such as the 11 states of the ofd Confederacy and non-coastal Western states).

Now my analysis is actually pretty objective here.  It is true I will never vote for Obama, but neither will I ever vote for McCain.  I have promised to vote for Hillary Clinton in the general election (as I did in the Texas primary), albeit in my own version of Rush Limbaugh's "operation chaos", carried to its logical conclusion.   I calculate that another President Clinton will be the best thing that has happened for conservatives since the previous President Clinton. 

Hillary Clinton won Pennsylvania in a landslide (talking about Obama "cutting" the margin is whistling in a graveyard--giving early polls a significance they do not have), even though that translates into few extra delegates (in the insane arithmatic of the Democratic Party nomination rulses).   Ditto for Ohio, and even California.  Even in a contested election, Clinton would probably win Michigan by a similar margin.  She won New Jersey by the same bype of landslide margin.  

All John McCain has to do is beat Barack Obama in ONE of thsoe states.  I think he can do it (unless he blows the entire election). 

Does Pennsylvania confirm that Democrats are shooting themselves in the foot by nominating a candidate objectively not qualified to be President of the United States, and who has shown NO ability to win the states a Democrat has to win in November? 

Yes.  And it gives me no comfort to conclude that, because I really don't want John McCain to be President. 

1 comment:

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