You really should read last week's blog article posted last Thursday. The number of new unemployment claims (new jobless claims) INITIALLY REPORTED last week was 365,000. The Maverick Conservative told you that the rEAL number--the REVISED number to be released this week--was likely 368,000.. The CORRUPR, DISHONEST media, of course, did not reprot it that way, because they are LIARS. The REVISED number for last week WAS reported today. Guess what? It WAS 368,000, as this blog again gave you next week's news last week. But our media, incuding the liars at CNBC, are shameless. Their lies just never end, no matter how often this blog exposes them.
Thus, th eheadline this morning was:
"Jobless claims fall slightly"
CNBC even MEPHASIZEWD the word "fall" as "good news", aS if this headline were not an bovisou blatant LIE. Jobless claims, on an apples-to-apples basis, ROSE this week, to 367,0000. If you read this blog, you understand this perfectly. The initiallly reported number last week was 365,000. That number is REVISED the following week, almost ALWAYS by at least 3,000. Thus, the REAL number, which is what the media shoululd have said last week (and every week) was 368,0000 (ignoring that even this number is merelyl a SUBJECTIVE estimate, severely "adjusted" for seasonal factors), the ONLY proper comparison is to comopare the 367,000 INITITIALLY REPORTED this week with the 365,000 INITIALLY REPORTED last week, to come to the obvius conclusioin that joless claims ROSE 2,000 this week. The other way to look at this is that the media again LIES when it says jobless claims this week were 367,0000. That number will be REVISED next week, probably to at least 370,000. Even if you ignored all of these LIES, it is a LIE to do a headline saying that jobles claims "fall" slightly. And that LIE is deliberate, with malice aforethou;ght--a LIE put out just so the LIARS at CNBC (and elsewhere), such as Jim Cramer, can out the HEADLINE as "good news". Nope. A change of 1,000, or even 2,000, is NOT a "fall" (or a "rise"). Proper headline: "New unemplylment claims unchanged, with no improvement evident this year".
That is the significant point here. There has been NO IMPROVEMENT in new unemplyment claims for essentially this entire year. Claims reached a LOW of about 350,000 in February, and the "trend" is UP since then. The last two weeks (368,000 and 370,000, using the likely revised figure) are ABOVE the TOP of the RANGE (350,000 to 365,000) established in EARLY FEBRUARY or LATE JANUARY. The three weeks before the last two were ALL right at 390,000 (basically the average for those 3 weeks). Thus, if yu take the last 5 weeks in their entirety, the number of new unemplyment claims has NOT IMPROVED over this ENTIRE YEAR: antoher Obama FAILURE on jobs. The number has DETERORIATED since the low point in February. Now this blog has told you that the "seasonal adjustment" may well be inaccurate, and the number may not really be "deteriorating". But if you assume that the "seasonal adjustment" is WRONG, then the "news" in February was NOT as "good" as the media told you. And we are still in a situation where the number is NOT IMPROVING. The same thing happened last year, and in 2010. The only "good' news is, perhaps, that the number is down SLIGHTLY from the same time last year (where the low reached in February was 375,000).
Even Marketwatch.com (LIARS) could not quite stomach the LIE in ttheir headline. Thus, the first paragraph noted what I tel you above: taht last week's number of new unemplyment claims was REVISED from 365,000 to 368,000. Further, their subheadline says that the number has been "little changed" in 3 months. Even that is a LIE, since it has been little changed in FOUR MONTHS and more. But the HEADLINE was deliberately designed to LIE. How do these people live with themselves? I don't know. They are LIARS. Message to you peopole of CNBC; Does it bother yu to be exosed as LIARS every single week in this blog? Maybe not, but it should And then you wonder why orfdinary people have LEFT the stock marke.t. Why shoululd they not? It is not just that the stock market has become a computer gaming casino. People have LEARNED that the people REPORTEING on the stock market, and supposedly ANALYZING it, are total, sociopathic LIEARS.
Nope. Despite the media headlines, jobless claims likely ROSE this week, and STAYED at a high level. It is still more than possible that they will revert back toward 400,000 in coming weeks, as they did in the 3 weeks prior to the last 2. It is also possilbe, of course, that jobless claims will head back toward 350,0000. The present 4-week average--around 380,000, woululd indicate a SLIGHT probability that the number will go UP from here, rather than down. That is also the lesson of 2010 and 2011. However, only time will tell. Inn the meantime, this is BAD NEWS, because it continues to indicate that the labor market is STUCK/STALLED in a BAD PLACE.
The Maverick Conservative gets it right. The CNBC/mainstream media liears get it wrong. What else is new?
Am I ever tired of being right ALL of the time, IN FORESIGHT? Well, no. But I do get very weary of the media being WRONG almost all of the time, in the most blatant way possible, and then ingnoring their own lies as if they never hppene.
P.S. No proofreading or spell checking (bad eyesight).