Thursday, May 31, 2012

Obama Fails on Jobs, as Employment Data Bad (Marketwatch Liars)

Here is the headline on the actaul STORY on "Hiring trend for private payrolls slows down:  ADP"

Here is the headline the LIARS at Marketwatch (see previous article on the same subject of emplyment numbers)  put on the website home page, linked to that same article:  "ADP reports private sector emplyoment up 13,000 in May"

How can teh TRND be BAD, and the number of employees go UP 3,000 in May?  Easy.  13,000, as the people of ADP know (where my only female friend, Sylvia, words as aa "configuration analyst", after USING her employment with me as a legal secretary/assistant to get an IT degre) know, is NOTHING:  well within the "margin of error".  It is an UNCHANGED number.  Problem: It is also a BAD number.  The ADP report, and the actual Marketwatch article, notes that the AVERAGE for the first quarter was a gain in private employment of more than 200,000.  The AVERAGE for teh first two months of the second quarter is 123,000.  ADP, and the Marketwatch articlle, call this a SHARP DELCINE.  Thus, it deos not matter that thre was a miniscule 13,000 "rise' in jobs "created" for May.  The "trend" from the first quarteris VERY BAD. The Marketwatch article even goes so far as to say that this "isgn" of a SLOW DOWN in the economy is CONSISTENT with other economic data (see, again, the previous article), as 'fears" of what is happening in Europe cause problems in the U.?S. economy. 

What does this mean?  See, again, the previus article posted today on this blog. What it means is that the monthly GOVERNMENT emplyment data, to be reported tomorrow, CANNNOT BE GOOD.  That is, it cannot be good, and be consistent with other data.  IF, by some chance, the data reported tomorrow was really "good", that would merely mean the data is FALSE (not necessariy deliberately, but becuase of a glitch in the way these SUBJECTIVE numbers are calculated).

Thus, the indications are that the monthly employment numbers to be reported tomorrow will be BAD (showing that there is NO "improving" "trend"). If the monthly GOVERNMENT numbers contradict other data, it mereely would make those numbers suspect.  There is also this consistent seasonal pattern, over the past three years, of the numbres looking worse at this time of year.  ADP cannot report a SHRP DECLINE in hiring "grends", and the government reort some sort of robust gAIN in employment.  At best, the government numbers tomorrow will show that the situatin did not GET WROSE in May.  But you have to look at ALL of these numbers together.  No matter what "spin" is put on tomorrow's numbers, or wahat they appear to "show", the SLLOWDOWN in U.S.economic growth in the second quarter is already ESTABLISHED (unless lyou want to say that the first quarter numbers tghemselves were FICTION--reflecting seasonal factors and weather, in which case the numbers for the first quarter were NEVER as good as they wre advertised, and we are still just muddling along in the mire at about the same level).

P.S.  No proofreading or spell checking (bad eyesight).

No comments: