Polls, Pollsters, Poll "Analysts", and the Mainstream Media: Flying, Fickle Finger of Fate Poi

This may be another repeat for the Flying, Fickle Finger of Fate.  If not, it should be.

 

As I have previously shown you, opinion polls are meaningless, evil things.  At best, they are fallible, statistical ESTIMATES of public opinion, AT A SINGLE MOMENT OF TIME, depending on the validity of the small sample as truly representative of the larger population (which no one can no for sure).  As I have said before, to assert that a POLL tells you how the "American people" think is a LIE.  The way the media reports polss, which is the only way they know how to cover electioins, is a TISSUE OF LIES (giving the numbers as concrete certainties, instead of the fallible, statistical estimates they are).  If you take my advice, and LIE to pollsters, polls will have no possible validity. 

 

You don't understand what I am talking about?  You should.  See the entry in this blog this last week, and consider the Presidential poll results this next week.  A poll of "likely voters" has McCain AHEAD 5 points.  Other polls--presented without analyzing whether the polls are of all people, registered voters, OR likely voters, which makes the media LIARS)--had Obama ahead 3%.   It is clear, as it always is, that all of these polls cannot be RIGHT in terms of the likely result if an election were held today (which is the ONLY purpose the polls purport to have).

 

Since people don't even pay much attention to politics, unless they are political jundies like me, until a week or two before the actual election, the polls have NO MENAING in any case (even if otherwise statistically valid). 

 

If you LISTEN, you know that "analysts", AND the mainstream media, KNOW this.  Yet, they keep putting out this stuff as if it means something.  If you are that desperate to MANUFACTURE NEWS, then you should just be shot to put you out of your misery.  I would not oppose making either taking or reporting a poll a CAPTIAL OFFENSE.  However, my draconian, bloodthirsty "solution" is not necessary.  Just LIE to pollsters, or refuse to cooperate, and that will be (eventually) capital punishment for polls and pollsters.  The evil, and it is a great one, is that politicians tailor everything they say and do to the polls--as if right, wrong, or effective leadership depedns on poll results.  Again, I ask you to THINK about how GREAT it would be to go into the November election without any idea, other than judgment, as to whether Obama is 20% ahead or 20% behind nationally.  THINK how great it would be in nobody, including people in the Obama and McCain campaigns, had any idea whether Pennsylvania (for example) was close or not.  That would mean that candidates might have to consider EVERY VOTER IN EVERY STATE (to a degree), without voters in "battle ground" states having their telephones, mail, and everything else OVERWHELMED by campaigns, as voters in other states are virtually ignored. 

 

Nope.  The spinning "Finger" has stopped in the right place again.  If you did not know, the Flhing, Fickle Finger of Fate is my (unauthorized) reincarnation of the old "Laugh In" award for especially egregious stupidity and/or evil that came to light in the previous week (sometimes, of course, existing all along, but coming to the attention of the spinning "Finger" in a particular week).  The pointing Finger spins, and where it will stop no one knows, until this blog reports it on Saturday (usually).  The "Finger" is represented by a statuette of a pointing INDEX finger.

 

As usual, the award is a virtual ceremony, IN THE IMAGINATION.  That is why I suggest that you use Dick Martin, and his inimitable way of presenting the "Finger" on Laugh In (if you are old enough to remember it) in his brash way.  Otherwise, you can visualize Jon Stewart or Colbert presenting the "Finger". 

 

Award Ceremony:

 

Imagine Dick Martin, or Jon Stewart, THRUSTING the statuette of the "Finger" at the camera, and saying:  "Polls, pollsters, poll "analysts", and the mainstream media, this award is for YOU.  You deserve it.  Plus, we have taken a poll, and 99.7% of Americans are of the opinion that all of you who are connected with polls are going to HELL.  Too bad.  We know polls don't lie."

 

Return next week to this blog to see at what deserving target the spinning Finger points when it stops next Saturday.

 

P.S.  If you doubt whether the maisntream media KNOWS polls are meaningless, you are not listening.  Yes, they are stupid.  But LISTEN to what they say about poll "bumps" from the convention, and such things as the naming of Biden as Obama's running mates.  In one moment, the media will report that you expect a "bump" in the polls from such staged events, but that you can't evaluate their impact fully until the dust settles (in other words, the polls are MEANINGLESS, and of NO "news" value).  In the next breath, the media will report the poll results as if they were significant "news".  It is all LAZINESS.  Polls are the EASY way to "report" elections.  That is another reason they are evil things.  They are a substitute for THINGKING.